506
FXUS64 KSJT 040543
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1243 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY. A FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE STRENGTH ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EASTER WEEKEND AND BREEZY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY.
- DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WHILE STORMS ARE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE AT THE MOMENT FROM PLAINVIEW TO CHILDRESS,
OVERALL STORM STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY OVER TIME
THROUGH SUNRISE, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL WILL BE A FEW STORMS THAT
APPROACH SEVERE STRENGTH, MAINLY IN THE BIG COUNTRY BEFORE 3 AM.
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE, PERIODIC HEAVY DOWNPOURS PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE OTHER CONCERN,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS
WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT
OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TODAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH WILL AFFECT THE AREA
AS WELL. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WE COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ALONG OUR I-10 CORRIDOR, BUT OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AND LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
MAINLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL EASTER SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING, AS A FEW
MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY MID TO LATE WEEK, AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY, BUT MORE SO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS DISTURBANCES AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES BY LATE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS, AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT ALL SITES TO EVENTUALLY FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH OUR
AREA TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS, BUT MODEL DATA HAS BEEN A BIT AGGRESSIVE ON
CEILING HEIGHTS, SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KABI FIRST BETWEEN
NOW AND 10Z. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z, WEAKENING AS IT GOES. HAVE
ADDRESSED THE TSRA MAINLY WITH TEMPO GROUPS AS TIMING OF THE
STORMS AND COVERAGE ARE STILL IN QUESTION. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
THESE STORMS THROUGH, AND NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES WILL AFFECT ALL SITES THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY EARLY
EVENING, AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 68 46 69 46 / 60 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 69 47 68 47 / 60 10 10 10
JUNCTION 71 48 65 46 / 80 20 20 20
BROWNWOOD 67 46 68 45 / 90 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 67 47 69 48 / 20 0 0 0
OZONA 68 50 64 49 / 60 10 20 30
BRADY 67 48 64 47 / 90 10 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...20
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