020
FXUS64 KSJT 042333
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
633 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO WINDY THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES EASTER
WEEKEND.
- DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY
MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WERE GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES AT
1 PM CDT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15 MPH THIS EVENING, AND
EVENTUALLY 5 TO 10 MPH. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH PATCHY MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS.
SKIES FOR EASTER MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG I-10 AND THE
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. PARTLY CLOUDY ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH
IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG COUNTRY, WHERE ONLY
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT
SHOWER IN CROCKETT COUNTY AND WESTERN SUTTON COUNTY. WINDS WILL BE
BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY MORNING, INCREASING TO
10 TO 15 MPH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 65 DEGREES ALONG I-10 TO 70 IN THE BIG COUNTRY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
AFTER THE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS PAST
WEEK, A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN HAS SHIFTED FROM WHAT WAS PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE,
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT US COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY MONDAY AND BE FURTHER
REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THE DOWNSIDE, HOWEVER, IS THAT BOTH MORNINGS LOOK TO BE COOL WITH
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HELP TO
GENERATE CLOUD COVER THAT DAY, RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW AND SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY, CROCKETT COUNTY AND
THE PERMIAN BASIN. A FEW MODEL MEMBERS DO INDICATE RAIN CHANCES
THAT DAY, BUT THESE ARE ALSO THE FEW THAT SHOW BETTER MOISTURE IN
THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS, WHILE THE MAJORITY DO NOT.
LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING IN A WARMER
AIRMASS WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY THURSDAY. THIS WOULD PLACE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RETURN THE REGION TO CONDITIONS MORE
INDICATIVE OF LATE SPRING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
FEW WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRAVERSE THE REGION
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR,
THIS WILL MONITORED FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES, BUT AT THIS
POINT, HEAVY RAIN COULD BE A CONCERN AS ENSEMBLES SHOW PWAT VALUES
GREATER THAN AN INCH DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. AS ALWAYS, THIS WILL BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUD
COVER AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TOW-THIRDS OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. INITIALLY
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND EXPECT
NORTHEAST WINDS 7-9 KNOTS TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY, EXPECT NORTHEAST OR
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 11-14 KNOTS AFTER 15Z WITH
GUSTS 18-22 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE IN THE EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 46 69 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 46 69 47 70 / 0 0 10 0
JUNCTION 48 66 46 69 / 10 10 20 10
BROWNWOOD 46 69 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 46 70 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 49 66 48 66 / 10 20 30 10
BRADY 48 65 46 68 / 0 10 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...19
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