721
FXUS64 KSJT 051130
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
630 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED IN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH. RADAR DATA CURRENTLY SHOWS
LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARDS MENARD, KIMBLE, AND MASON COUNTIES. THIS
ACTIVITY, HOWEVER, IS VERY LIGHT, AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOR TODAY, AREAS SOUTH OF I-20
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE, GENERALLY SOUTH OF A STERLING CITY TO
BROWNWOOD LINE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE BIG COUNTRY SHOULD SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE BY LATE MORNING, BECOMING LIGHT AND EASTERLY BY THIS
EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S.
TONIGHT, WE SHOULD SEE THE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ENDING ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS, AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP MILD AND PLEASANT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER, THESE MILD
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS COMING WEEK.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRACKING
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO
THE AREA, ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. A WARMER AND MOIST AIRMASS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 70S
ON WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE STARTING TO SHOW A
FAIRLY POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CALIFORNIA
COAST ON THURSDAY GRADUALLY SWEEPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER WEST TEXAS
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES COULD HELP BRING MORE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO THE REGION, INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR INCREASED SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL. FROM WHAT WE ARE SEEING SO FAR IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING ONE INCH WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WE
WILL SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SHRA NEAR THE KJCT TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT
1 TO 2 HOURS. AND THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHRA TONIGHT NEAR
THE KSOA SITE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS TONIGHT
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE A MENTION. OTHERWISE,
SCT TO BKN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY WILL PICK UP
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BY MID/LATE
MORNING TODAY, THEN WEAKEN BACK DOWN TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AROUND
00Z THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 69 45 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 69 46 71 46 / 10 10 0 0
JUNCTION 67 45 71 44 / 10 20 0 0
BROWNWOOD 68 44 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 69 46 72 49 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 65 47 70 48 / 20 20 0 10
BRADY 65 45 68 45 / 0 10 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...20
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