733
FXUS64 KSJT 082321
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
621 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES INCREASING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE OR LESS ZONAL ON THURSDAY. WE
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING
A HIGH CHANCE (60-80%) FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT, AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
HELP GENERATE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN AT TIMES. MOST LOCATIONS
COULD SEE 0.5" TO 1" OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED POCKETS CLOSER TO 1.5".
THESE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A MARGINAL RISK (5 TO 15%
CHANCE) OF SEEING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT LEADS TO FLASH FLOODING.
THIS ROUND OF ACTIVITY IS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN IN THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THIS TIME, THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO FORM ALONG A DRYLINE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR
AREA. THE COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN SATURDAY, WHICH WILL
MEAN LOWER CHANCES (40%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW SOON
SATURDAY NIGHT'S ACTIVITY WRAPS UP AND WHETHER WE RECOVER QUICK
ENOUGH ON SUNDAY.
AFTERWARDS, A BROADER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. CONTINUES
DEVELOPING AND SHIFTING TO THE EAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE LOW
CHANCES (20-40%) FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK. AT
LEAST SOME PORTION OF OUR AREA WILL REMAIN OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE
WEATHER STARTING ON SATURDAY AND RUNNING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
AT THIS POINT, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOSTLY
LIKELY HAZARDS. ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO REGARDING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10KT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH BY 12Z, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BETWEEN 15-18Z. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY AFTER CEILINGS IMPROVE, WITH
GUSTS TO 20KT AT TIMES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM AROUND BRADY AND/OR JUNCTION AFTER 21Z, BUT THIS WAS
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 57 81 60 81 / 0 10 0 10
SAN ANGELO 56 81 59 81 / 0 10 10 20
JUNCTION 56 80 58 80 / 0 20 20 30
BROWNWOOD 55 79 59 80 / 0 10 10 20
SWEETWATER 57 81 60 82 / 0 10 0 10
OZONA 58 77 59 78 / 0 20 10 10
BRADY 56 77 59 78 / 0 20 10 30
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...SK
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