939
FXUS64 KSJT 090421
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1121 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES INCREASING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE OR LESS ZONAL ON THURSDAY. WE
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. ON FRIDAY, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF
THE WEST COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN DRIVE SOUTH TOWARD
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING TOWARD THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PLACE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES TRACKING ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION, MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWAT) INCREASING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 1.3 TO 1.8 INCHES, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN WE HAVE MEDIUM TO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES (60-90%). GIVEN THE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY RESULT IN
FLOODING. IN ADDITION, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. ON
SUNDAY, HIGHER PWAT VALUES MOSTLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH
THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. MEDIUM (40 TO 60) RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST ON
SUNDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY,
BUT THE DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF TO OUR WEST.
THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 50%) RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 80S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY TRACK EAST AND
APPROACH THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10KT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH BY 12Z, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BETWEEN 15-18Z. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY AFTER CEILINGS IMPROVE, WITH
GUSTS TO 20KT AT TIMES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM AROUND BRADY AND/OR JUNCTION AFTER 21Z, BUT THIS WAS
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 79 58 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 80 56 80 59 / 0 0 20 10
JUNCTION 80 56 80 58 / 0 0 30 20
BROWNWOOD 77 55 79 60 / 0 0 20 10
SWEETWATER 79 58 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 76 58 77 60 / 0 0 20 10
BRADY 77 57 78 60 / 0 0 20 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...SK
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