565
FXUS64 KSJT 091129
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
629 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, AND THAT CAN BE
SEEN IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WHILE THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A
BROWNWOOD TO SAN ANGELO TO SONORA LINE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. ON FRIDAY, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF
THE WEST COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN DRIVE SOUTH TOWARD
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING TOWARD THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PLACE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES TRACKING ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION, MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWAT) INCREASING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 1.3 TO 1.8 INCHES, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN WE HAVE MEDIUM TO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES (60-90%). GIVEN THE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY RESULT IN
FLOODING. IN ADDITION, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. ON
SUNDAY, HIGHER PWAT VALUES MOSTLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH
THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. MEDIUM (40 TO 60) RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST ON
SUNDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY,
BUT THE DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF TO OUR WEST.
THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 50%) RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 80S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY TRACK EAST AND
APPROACH THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING, AND ARE
AFFECTING ALL SITES, EXCEPT FOR KABI, BUT WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE
THEIR WAY INTO THE KABI TERMINAL AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
STILL EXPECTING TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT COVERAGE OF THESE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO ONLY
NEED A VCSH AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH TOMORROW, WHILE KABI AND
KSJT SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATE
TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 81 61 81 62 / 0 0 20 20
SAN ANGELO 80 59 81 61 / 10 10 30 20
JUNCTION 80 58 80 60 / 30 20 40 20
BROWNWOOD 79 60 79 60 / 20 10 40 20
SWEETWATER 81 60 82 62 / 0 0 20 20
OZONA 77 60 78 61 / 20 10 30 30
BRADY 78 60 77 61 / 20 20 40 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...20
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