286
FXUS64 KSJT 092006
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
306 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUD DECKS HAVE SCATTERED OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT SKIES STILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION/LIFT MAY STILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, BUT THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL REMAINS LOW
(BETWEEN 10-30%). MILD TEMPERATURES ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY. THIS INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING OVERHEAD WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (20-40% CHANCE) ACROSS LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A HASKELL, SAN ANGELO, SONORA LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S OVER THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND
EASTERN PACIFIC. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES. ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION AND SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPING SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, AND SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE CONSIDERABLY (60-90%) DURING THIS
TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1-2" MAY FALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME, WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST WPC EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK NOW PLACES MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IN A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL ALSO FAVOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY UNDERNEATH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL BRING CONTINUED LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%)
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
A BROAD AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS WITH VFR BASES BETWEEN 3-5
KFT AGL WILL SPREAD OVER THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW LIGHT SHRA MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED WITH LITTLE IMPACT ANTICIPATED. WE EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY AT
KBBD AND KJCT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 61 80 62 80 / 10 20 20 70
SAN ANGELO 59 81 61 80 / 20 20 30 70
JUNCTION 58 80 60 80 / 20 30 20 60
BROWNWOOD 59 78 60 79 / 10 30 20 50
SWEETWATER 61 81 62 78 / 0 10 20 80
OZONA 60 78 61 75 / 20 10 40 70
BRADY 61 77 61 77 / 20 30 20 60
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDSEY
LONG TERM....LINDSEY
AVIATION...LINDSEY
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