133
FXUS64 KSJT 100432
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1132 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUD DECKS HAVE SCATTERED OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT SKIES STILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION/LIFT MAY STILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, BUT THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL REMAINS LOW
(BETWEEN 10-30%). MILD TEMPERATURES ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY. THIS INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING OVERHEAD WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (20-40% CHANCE) ACROSS LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A HASKELL, SAN ANGELO, SONORA LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S OVER THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ARE LIKELY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LARGE, ROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CENTERED OFF THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PLACE WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH INTERMITTENT
DISTURBANCES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS, SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION, MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE ON SATURDAY, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (PWATS) INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES PLUS BY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-90%) CHANCE OF
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING. IN
ADDITION, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, WITH A MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-
70%) CHANCE OF RAIN. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT
INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS ONE TROUGH WEAKENS AND TRACKS
EAST, IT IS REPLACED BY ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST (MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS) EVERY DAY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS DOESN'T MEAN THAT YOU WILL SEE
RAIN EVERY DAY, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE ON A DAILY BASIS. THE TIMING
OF THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES IS HARD TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT, BUT
WILL MATCH UP WITH WHEN INDIVIDUAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONE OF THOSE INSTANCES WILL BE LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, WHEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST
30-40%). HIGHS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
06-10Z. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES, MAINLY FOR
AREAS NEAR BROWNWOOD, JUNCTION, BRADY AND SONORA. CEILINGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BETWEEN 15-19Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 80 61 80 62 / 10 10 20 10
SAN ANGELO 80 60 81 62 / 10 20 20 10
JUNCTION 80 60 80 60 / 30 20 30 10
BROWNWOOD 79 60 79 61 / 10 10 30 10
SWEETWATER 81 61 82 62 / 0 0 10 10
OZONA 77 61 78 62 / 10 10 10 30
BRADY 78 60 77 62 / 30 20 30 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDSEY
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...SK
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