005
FXUS64 KSJT 101702
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1202 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
A WARM, MOIST, AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE FIRST ROUND OF
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA, WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY MORNING BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.
AT THIS TIME IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A CHANCE
FOR ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO BECOME SEVERE, BUT THERE
REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE AT BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT, WITH MILD HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ARE LIKELY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LARGE, ROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CENTERED OFF THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PLACE WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH INTERMITTENT
DISTURBANCES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS, SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION, MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE ON SATURDAY, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (PWATS) INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES PLUS BY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-90%) CHANCE OF
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING. IN
ADDITION, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, WITH A MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-
70%) CHANCE OF RAIN. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT
INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS ONE TROUGH WEAKENS AND TRACKS
EAST, IT IS REPLACED BY ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST (MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS) EVERY DAY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS DOESN'T MEAN THAT YOU WILL SEE
RAIN EVERY DAY, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE ON A DAILY BASIS. THE TIMING
OF THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES IS HARD TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT, BUT
WILL MATCH UP WITH WHEN INDIVIDUAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONE OF THOSE INSTANCES WILL BE LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, WHEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST
30-40%). HIGHS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS GENERALLY LIFTED
TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KBBD WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HIGH-END MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO AT LEAST MVFR LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
THROUGH SATURDAY, WE ADDED SHOWERS AND LOWERS MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER AT THIS TIME
ON PLACEMENT AN TIMING, BUT THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR TERMINALS
TO SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 80 62 78 63 / 20 10 70 90
SAN ANGELO 81 62 80 61 / 20 10 70 90
JUNCTION 80 60 80 61 / 30 10 70 80
BROWNWOOD 79 61 78 62 / 30 10 50 80
SWEETWATER 82 62 77 62 / 10 10 80 90
OZONA 78 62 76 61 / 10 30 80 90
BRADY 77 62 77 63 / 30 10 60 70
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...TP
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