480
FXUS64 KSJT 101825
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
125 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH SOME RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SEVERE WEATHER RISK SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
A WARM, MOIST, AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE FIRST ROUND OF
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA, WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY MORNING BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.
AT THIS TIME IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A CHANCE
FOR ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO BECOME SEVERE, BUT THERE
REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE AT BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT, WITH MILD HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS/MCS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL (QUARTER TO HALF-DOLLAR
SIZE) AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS, ALONG WITH LIGHTNING.
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES),
HEAVY RAIN IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED URBAN/
STREET FLOODING, AND FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA, PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE, OUR AREA WILL HAVE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH SUFFICIENT AND OCCASIONALLY MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR,
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION/RAIN
CHANCES, IN ADDITION TO THE EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AS WE GO THROUGH EACH DAY, WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING.
TIMING AND SPECIFIC PLACEMENT OF THE DISTURBANCES ALOFT IS
UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY AFTER MONDAY. OUR FAR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT, WHEN AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING HIGHER CHANCES OF
OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION, SEASONABLY WARM AND RELATIVELY HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR OUR AREA. DAILY
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WITH LOWS 60-65 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS GENERALLY LIFTED
TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KBBD WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HIGH-END MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO AT LEAST MVFR LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
THROUGH SATURDAY, WE ADDED SHOWERS AND LOWERS MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER AT THIS TIME
ON PLACEMENT AN TIMING, BUT THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR TERMINALS
TO SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 63 79 63 82 / 10 60 100 50
SAN ANGELO 62 81 62 83 / 10 60 90 50
JUNCTION 60 81 62 79 / 10 50 70 60
BROWNWOOD 61 79 63 79 / 10 50 80 60
SWEETWATER 63 79 62 84 / 10 70 100 40
OZONA 62 76 61 80 / 30 60 90 50
BRADY 62 77 63 77 / 10 50 70 60
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...TP
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