737
FXUS64 KSJT 110452
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1152 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH SOME RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SEVERE WEATHER RISK SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
A WARM, MOIST, AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE FIRST ROUND OF
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA, WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY MORNING BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.
AT THIS TIME IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A CHANCE
FOR ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO BECOME SEVERE, BUT THERE
REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE AT BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT, WITH MILD HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
AS FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
STARTING WITH SUNDAY MORNING, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LEFTOVER FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD LIKELY BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS LINE WOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER, THE DRYLINE WILL STILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER WHILE THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT WILL STILL
BE QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER
BREAKS UP BY THE AFTERNOON AND SUFFICIENT HEATING OCCURS,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE AS IT MIXES EASTWARD. CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE IN
THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE WITH AMPLE SHEAR. ANY STORMS COULD STILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
US PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE WHICH MEANS A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE DRYLINE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS DAILY MIXING AND
RETREATING CYCLE LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF PASSING WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
THE SURFACE PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN
US. MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT LOCATED FROM FAR WEST TEXAS UP THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD PROVIDE A MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE
ZONE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY. THE MAIN TAKEAWAY HERE IS THAT WHILE THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, NOT EVERYONE WILL RECEIVE
RAINFALL. IN ADDITION THE DAILY SEVERITY AND FLOOD RISK COULD ALSO
CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND
MESOSCALE FACTORS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING, THEN STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CEILINGS. SOME IFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER CEILINGS TO IFR
AT THIS TIME. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE AND
WILL RE-EVALUATE BASED ON NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING NEAR
20 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT
LIMITED COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE MENTIONING AT THIS TIME.
CONVECTION IS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 81 63 80 63 / 20 20 70 90
SAN ANGELO 82 62 81 61 / 10 10 70 90
JUNCTION 80 60 81 61 / 30 10 70 80
BROWNWOOD 79 61 79 63 / 30 10 50 80
SWEETWATER 82 63 80 62 / 0 10 70 100
OZONA 80 62 77 61 / 10 20 60 90
BRADY 77 62 78 62 / 30 10 60 80
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...24
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