912
FXUS64 KSJT 110657
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
157 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH SOME RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SEVERE WEATHER RISK SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
FORECAST FOR A MUCH BUSIER TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL ON TRACK ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE SET TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE DRYLINE WILL BE PUSHED WELL BACK NEAR
THE TEXAS NEW MEXICO LINE. ABUNDANT CLOUDS COVER WILL KEEP
INSTABILITY FROM GETTING TOO HIGH, BUT STILL HAVE ROUGHLY
1500J/KG CAPE VALUES. MOST OF THE CAMS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL START TO
THE WEST.
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS PECOS THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING
EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN WELL INTO TONIGHT. GIVE THE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR, POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS THERE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. STILL, JUST THE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HELP KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DOWN A LITTLE.
NAMNEST IS PROBABLY THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE OF THE CAMS IN PUSHING
THE CONVECTION EAST ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WITH THE HRRR, WRF, ARW,
AND RRFS ALL SHOWING BASICALLY THE SAME IDEA, WILL LEAN THAT
DIRECTION AND BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS ALL OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON
HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE HIGH AND DESPITE SOME DECENT CONVECTIVE
SPEED EXPECTED, SOME TRAINING OF THE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL START
TO MEAN THAT RAINFALL TOTALS MAY START TO ADD UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1.0 TO 1.5 INCH WILL BE COMMON BUT SOME TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SOME STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF LOW WATER
CROSSINGS AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
AS FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
STARTING WITH SUNDAY MORNING, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LEFTOVER FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD LIKELY BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS LINE WOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER, THE DRYLINE WILL STILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER WHILE THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT WILL STILL
BE QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER
BREAKS UP BY THE AFTERNOON AND SUFFICIENT HEATING OCCURS,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE AS IT MIXES EASTWARD. CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE IN
THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE WITH AMPLE SHEAR. ANY STORMS COULD STILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
US PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE WHICH MEANS A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE DRYLINE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS DAILY MIXING AND
RETREATING CYCLE LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF PASSING WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
THE SURFACE PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN
US. MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT LOCATED FROM FAR WEST TEXAS UP THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD PROVIDE A MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE
ZONE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY. THE MAIN TAKEAWAY HERE IS THAT WHILE THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, NOT EVERYONE WILL RECEIVE
RAINFALL. IN ADDITION THE DAILY SEVERITY AND FLOOD RISK COULD ALSO
CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND
MESOSCALE FACTORS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD BY
SUNRISE. ONCE THE MVFR CIGS LIFT BY MID/LATE MORNING THEN A LOW
END VFR DECK WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED. HOWEVER, WILL INTRODUCE PROB30 IN AT BOTH SAN ANGELO AND
ABILENE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHEN COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 80 63 84 65 / 70 90 50 10
SAN ANGELO 81 61 84 64 / 70 90 40 10
JUNCTION 81 61 81 63 / 70 80 60 20
BROWNWOOD 79 63 80 63 / 50 80 70 20
SWEETWATER 80 62 86 65 / 70 100 30 0
OZONA 77 61 81 65 / 60 90 30 10
BRADY 78 62 79 64 / 60 80 70 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...07
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