092
FXUS64 KSJT 111800
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
100 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT,
AND SOME RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT.
- UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SEVERE WEATHER RISK SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
FORECAST FOR A MUCH BUSIER TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL ON TRACK ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE SET TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE DRYLINE WILL BE PUSHED WELL BACK NEAR
THE TEXAS NEW MEXICO LINE. ABUNDANT CLOUDS COVER WILL KEEP
INSTABILITY FROM GETTING TOO HIGH, BUT STILL HAVE ROUGHLY
1500J/KG CAPE VALUES. MOST OF THE CAMS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL START TO
THE WEST.
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS PECOS THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING
EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN WELL INTO TONIGHT. GIVE THE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR, POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS THERE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. STILL, JUST THE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HELP KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DOWN A LITTLE.
NAMNEST IS PROBABLY THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE OF THE CAMS IN PUSHING
THE CONVECTION EAST ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WITH THE HRRR, WRF, ARW,
AND RRFS ALL SHOWING BASICALLY THE SAME IDEA, WILL LEAN THAT
DIRECTION AND BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS ALL OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON
HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE HIGH AND DESPITE SOME DECENT CONVECTIVE
SPEED EXPECTED, SOME TRAINING OF THE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL START
TO MEAN THAT RAINFALL TOTALS MAY START TO ADD UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1.0 TO 1.5 INCH WILL BE COMMON BUT SOME TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SOME STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF LOW WATER
CROSSINGS AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
AS FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
STARTING WITH SUNDAY MORNING, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LEFTOVER FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD LIKELY BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS LINE WOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER, THE DRYLINE WILL STILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER WHILE THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT WILL STILL
BE QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER
BREAKS UP BY THE AFTERNOON AND SUFFICIENT HEATING OCCURS,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE AS IT MIXES EASTWARD. CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE IN
THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE WITH AMPLE SHEAR. ANY STORMS COULD STILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
US PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE WHICH MEANS A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE DRYLINE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS DAILY MIXING AND
RETREATING CYCLE LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF PASSING WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
THE SURFACE PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN
US. MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT LOCATED FROM FAR WEST TEXAS UP THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD PROVIDE A MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE
ZONE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY. THE MAIN TAKEAWAY HERE IS THAT WHILE THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, NOT EVERYONE WILL RECEIVE
RAINFALL. IN ADDITION THE DAILY SEVERITY AND FLOOD RISK COULD ALSO
CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND
MESOSCALE FACTORS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE CLIMBING ABOVE 3000FT AT MIDDAY, AND WILL
INCREASE FURTER TO 4000-5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
A MENTION IN THE AREA TAFS, BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NEECED. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY/CEILING ARE
POSSIBLE IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA TONIGHT, BEGINNING AFTER SUNET IN
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AND EXTENDING INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CARRYING TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN OUR
TAFS. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY ALONG/NEAR THE
LEADING EDGE, AND VISIBILITY/CEILING REDUCTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED. SOME HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
END BY OR BEFORE 09Z AT KSJT/KSOA, BY 11Z AT KABI, AND BY 14Z AT
KBBD/KJCT. LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS IN THE RANGE OF 800FT-1800FT. OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, EXPECT BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS NEAR 22 KNOTS AT
KABI, AND AROUND 20 KNOTS AT KSJT AND OUR TAF SITES FARTHER SOUTH.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT MAINLY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
HIGHER SPEEDS AT KABI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 63 83 66 87 / 100 50 10 10
SAN ANGELO 61 84 64 86 / 90 30 10 10
JUNCTION 61 80 64 84 / 80 60 20 20
BROWNWOOD 62 80 64 85 / 80 70 10 10
SWEETWATER 63 85 65 88 / 100 20 0 0
OZONA 62 82 64 82 / 100 30 10 10
BRADY 62 78 65 83 / 70 60 20 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...19
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