880
FXUS64 KSJT 111827
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
127 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT,
AND SOME RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT.
- UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SEVERE WEATHER RISK SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
FORECAST FOR A MUCH BUSIER TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL ON TRACK ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE SET TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE DRYLINE WILL BE PUSHED WELL BACK NEAR
THE TEXAS NEW MEXICO LINE. ABUNDANT CLOUDS COVER WILL KEEP
INSTABILITY FROM GETTING TOO HIGH, BUT STILL HAVE ROUGHLY
1500J/KG CAPE VALUES. MOST OF THE CAMS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL START TO
THE WEST.
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS PECOS THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING
EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN WELL INTO TONIGHT. GIVE THE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR, POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS THERE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. STILL, JUST THE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HELP KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DOWN A LITTLE.
NAMNEST IS PROBABLY THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE OF THE CAMS IN PUSHING
THE CONVECTION EAST ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WITH THE HRRR, WRF, ARW,
AND RRFS ALL SHOWING BASICALLY THE SAME IDEA, WILL LEAN THAT
DIRECTION AND BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS ALL OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON
HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE HIGH AND DESPITE SOME DECENT CONVECTIVE
SPEED EXPECTED, SOME TRAINING OF THE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL START
TO MEAN THAT RAINFALL TOTALS MAY START TO ADD UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1.0 TO 1.5 INCH WILL BE COMMON BUT SOME TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SOME STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF LOW WATER
CROSSINGS AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS BEGIN WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH BRINGS IN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS,
HOWEVER, WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AS
STORMS DEVELOP OFF A DRYLINE IN THE PERMIAN BASIN AND MOVING EAST.
WITH A WARM MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S,
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EACH DAY NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKS LESS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. WHILE ITS QUITE FAR OUT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD INCREASE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT SATURDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT
SUNDAY.
OVER ALL, WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAIL NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE CLIMBING ABOVE 3000FT AT MIDDAY, AND WILL
INCREASE FURTER TO 4000-5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
A MENTION IN THE AREA TAFS, BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NEECED. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY/CEILING ARE
POSSIBLE IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA TONIGHT, BEGINNING AFTER SUNET IN
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AND EXTENDING INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CARRYING TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN OUR
TAFS. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY ALONG/NEAR THE
LEADING EDGE, AND VISIBILITY/CEILING REDUCTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED. SOME HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
END BY OR BEFORE 09Z AT KSJT/KSOA, BY 11Z AT KABI, AND BY 14Z AT
KBBD/KJCT. LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS IN THE RANGE OF 800FT-1800FT. OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, EXPECT BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS NEAR 22 KNOTS AT
KABI, AND AROUND 20 KNOTS AT KSJT AND OUR TAF SITES FARTHER SOUTH.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT MAINLY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
HIGHER SPEEDS AT KABI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 63 83 66 87 / 100 50 10 10
SAN ANGELO 61 84 64 86 / 90 30 10 10
JUNCTION 61 80 64 84 / 80 60 20 20
BROWNWOOD 62 80 64 85 / 80 70 10 10
SWEETWATER 63 85 65 88 / 100 20 0 0
OZONA 62 82 64 82 / 100 30 10 10
BRADY 62 78 65 83 / 70 60 20 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...19
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