534
FXUS64 KSJT 111918 CCA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
215 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT,
AND SOME RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT.
- UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SEVERE WEATHER RISK SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO
INITIATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE TX BIG BEND AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS, INTO THE PECOS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG, THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS.
EXPECT STORMS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING. LARGER CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA BETWEEN 8 PM AND
MIDNIGHT, AND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH STORMS TONIGHT, THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE STRONG/POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS. THERE IS A VERY LOW (2 PERCENT) THREAT FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES,
HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION. OVERALL, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH WILL BE COMMON, WITH AREAS UNDER HEAVY
DOWNPOURS RECEIVING TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. A FEW HIGHER TOTALS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR THE
AREA, HEAVY RAINFALL CONCENTRATED IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME (ALSO
BACKBUILDING STORMS) COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF CITY STREETS, LOW
WATER CROSSINGS AND AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. QUICK RISES ON
SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH HILLY TERRAIN. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO BE OVER OUR EASTERN (HEARTLAND) AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES IN THE EARLY TO MID- MORNING HOURS SUNDAY, BEFORE ENDING.
AFTER MORNING CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY, COVERAGE WILL DECREASE FROM THE
WEST BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO HAVE ENOUGH
TIME TO RECOVER AND BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
(MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS) SHOULD ANY STORMS DEVELOP.
HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME ON THE
EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT AND STORM COVERAGE. EXPECT HIGHS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES, TO THE MID 80S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE BIG COUNTRY
AND CONCHO VALLEY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS BEGIN WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH BRINGS IN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS,
HOWEVER, WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AS
STORMS DEVELOP OFF A DRYLINE IN THE PERMIAN BASIN AND MOVING EAST.
WITH A WARM MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S,
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EACH DAY NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKS LESS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. WHILE ITS QUITE FAR OUT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD INCREASE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT SATURDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT
SUNDAY.
OVER ALL, WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAIL NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE CLIMBING ABOVE 3000FT AT MIDDAY, AND WILL
INCREASE FURTER TO 4000-5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
A MENTION IN THE AREA TAFS, BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NEECED. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY/CEILING ARE
POSSIBLE IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA TONIGHT, BEGINNING AFTER SUNET IN
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AND EXTENDING INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CARRYING TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN OUR
TAFS. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY ALONG/NEAR THE
LEADING EDGE, AND VISIBILITY/CEILING REDUCTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED. SOME HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
END BY OR BEFORE 09Z AT KSJT/KSOA, BY 11Z AT KABI, AND BY 14Z AT
KBBD/KJCT. LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS IN THE RANGE OF 800FT-1800FT. OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, EXPECT BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS NEAR 22 KNOTS AT
KABI, AND AROUND 20 KNOTS AT KSJT AND OUR TAF SITES FARTHER SOUTH.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT MAINLY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
HIGHER SPEEDS AT KABI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 63 83 66 87 / 100 50 10 10
SAN ANGELO 61 84 64 86 / 90 30 10 10
JUNCTION 61 80 64 84 / 80 60 20 20
BROWNWOOD 62 80 64 85 / 80 70 10 10
SWEETWATER 63 85 65 88 / 100 20 0 0
OZONA 62 82 64 82 / 100 30 10 10
BRADY 62 78 65 83 / 70 60 20 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...19
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