195
FXUS64 KSJT 120600
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
100 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT,
AND SOME RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT.
- UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SEVERE WEATHER RISK SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO
INITIATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE TX BIG BEND AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS, INTO THE PECOS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG, THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS.
EXPECT STORMS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING. LARGER CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA BETWEEN 8 PM AND
MIDNIGHT, AND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH STORMS TONIGHT, THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE STRONG/POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS. THERE IS A VERY LOW (2 PERCENT) THREAT FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES,
HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION. OVERALL, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH WILL BE COMMON, WITH AREAS UNDER HEAVY
DOWNPOURS RECEIVING TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. A FEW HIGHER TOTALS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR THE
AREA, HEAVY RAINFALL CONCENTRATED IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME (ALSO
BACKBUILDING STORMS) COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF CITY STREETS, LOW
WATER CROSSINGS AND AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. QUICK RISES ON
SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH HILLY TERRAIN. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO BE OVER OUR EASTERN (HEARTLAND) AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES IN THE EARLY TO MID- MORNING HOURS SUNDAY, BEFORE ENDING.
AFTER MORNING CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY, COVERAGE WILL DECREASE FROM THE
WEST BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO HAVE ENOUGH
TIME TO RECOVER AND BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
(MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS) SHOULD ANY STORMS DEVELOP.
HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME ON THE
EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT AND STORM COVERAGE. EXPECT HIGHS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES, TO THE MID 80S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE BIG COUNTRY
AND CONCHO VALLEY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS BEGIN WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH BRINGS IN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS,
HOWEVER, WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AS
STORMS DEVELOP OFF A DRYLINE IN THE PERMIAN BASIN AND MOVING EAST.
WITH A WARM MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S,
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EACH DAY NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKS LESS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. WHILE ITS QUITE FAR OUT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD INCREASE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT SATURDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT
SUNDAY.
OVER ALL, WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAIL NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS CLEARED KABI, KSJT AND KSOA AND IS
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE KJCT AND KBBD TERMINALS.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THIS LINE ACROSS MOST OF
THE TERMINALS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MAINTAIN PROB30 GROUPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL,
OTHERWISE EXPECT A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 4SM AT TIMES. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT, WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LIMITED
COVERAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 84 66 87 67 / 50 10 0 20
SAN ANGELO 84 64 87 65 / 40 10 10 30
JUNCTION 80 63 83 63 / 80 20 10 20
BROWNWOOD 80 64 85 65 / 80 10 10 10
SWEETWATER 86 65 89 67 / 30 0 0 20
OZONA 82 64 82 65 / 20 10 10 30
BRADY 79 64 82 65 / 80 20 10 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...24
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