788
FXUS64 KSJT 121121
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
621 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER RISK MOST DAYS.
- HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ENHANCES THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AND WILL
TAKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT BEFORE SUNRISE.
WILL SEE IF ANY BOUNDARIES END UP REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT SUSPECT THAT THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE BACK TO THE WEST ALONG WHATEVER DRYLINE CAN
REFORM ACROSS THE AREA. DRYLINE DOESN'T PARTICULARLY FOCUSED,
ALTHOUGH CAPE VALUES MAY ACTUALLY END UP HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE IN
PREVIOUS DAYS. SOME WEAK CAPPING AND A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT MAY
HINDER CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS WELL, OR AT LEAST IT DOESN'T
PROVIDE MUCH HELP. WILL ALSO PROBABLY TAKE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING TO FINALLY GET GOING IF IT DOES. WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY SOME ISOLATED POPS ALTHOUGH DAY SHIFT WILL LIKELY HAVE A
BETTER FEEL FOR WHAT MAY REDEVELOP ONCE THIS INITIAL CONVECTION
GETS OUT OF THE AREA AND WEAKENS AND WE CAN SEE EXACTLY WHAT IS
LEFT ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
GENERAL UPPER PATTERN OF A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US AND A RIDGE
OVER THE EAST, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. DRYLINE WILL
DEVELOP JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY, SLOSHING EASTWARD TO NEAR THE
WESTERN BORDER OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EACH AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY PRESENT SO STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED ON THOSE DAYS WHERE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT, TO SOMETHING MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THOSE DAYS WHERE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ZIPS ACROSS
THE AREA AND PROVIDES BETTER UPPER SUPPORT. FOR THIS WEEK, THE
TWO DAYS WHERE A SHORTWAVE APPEARS MOST LIKELY WILL BE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY OR SATURDAY EVENING,
ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE WEEK IS VERY ROUGH
AND MODELS HAVE THEIR TIMING DIFFERENCES.
WILL END UP CARRYING LOW POPS FOR MOST DAYS THIS WEEK, EXCEPT FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IS MUCH
STRONGER. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OF 1500-2000 J/KG ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE, SOME STRONGER SEVERE
STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY BE THE DAY REALLY
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
BULK OF THE CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS, AND
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. SOME OF
THE CAMS SHOW DECENT COVERAGE WHILE OTHERS SHOW SPOTTY
REDEVELOPMENT AT BEST. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND
MONITOR. OTHERWISE, MVFR TO IFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING
INTO A VFR DECK. A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 84 66 87 67 / 30 10 0 20
SAN ANGELO 84 64 87 65 / 30 10 10 30
JUNCTION 80 63 83 63 / 80 20 10 20
BROWNWOOD 80 64 85 65 / 50 10 10 10
SWEETWATER 86 65 89 67 / 20 0 0 20
OZONA 82 64 82 65 / 20 10 10 30
BRADY 79 64 82 65 / 70 20 10 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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