540
FXUS64 KSJT 121745
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1245 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER RISK MOST DAYS.
- HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ENHANCES THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AND WILL
TAKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT BEFORE SUNRISE.
WILL SEE IF ANY BOUNDARIES END UP REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT SUSPECT THAT THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE BACK TO THE WEST ALONG WHATEVER DRYLINE CAN
REFORM ACROSS THE AREA. DRYLINE DOESN'T PARTICULARLY FOCUSED,
ALTHOUGH CAPE VALUES MAY ACTUALLY END UP HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE IN
PREVIOUS DAYS. SOME WEAK CAPPING AND A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT MAY
HINDER CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS WELL, OR AT LEAST IT DOESN'T
PROVIDE MUCH HELP. WILL ALSO PROBABLY TAKE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING TO FINALLY GET GOING IF IT DOES. WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY SOME ISOLATED POPS ALTHOUGH DAY SHIFT WILL LIKELY HAVE A
BETTER FEEL FOR WHAT MAY REDEVELOP ONCE THIS INITIAL CONVECTION
GETS OUT OF THE AREA AND WEAKENS AND WE CAN SEE EXACTLY WHAT IS
LEFT ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
GENERAL UPPER PATTERN OF A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US AND A RIDGE
OVER THE EAST, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. DRYLINE WILL
DEVELOP JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY, SLOSHING EASTWARD TO NEAR THE
WESTERN BORDER OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EACH AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY PRESENT SO STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED ON THOSE DAYS WHERE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT, TO SOMETHING MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THOSE DAYS WHERE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ZIPS ACROSS
THE AREA AND PROVIDES BETTER UPPER SUPPORT. FOR THIS WEEK, THE
TWO DAYS WHERE A SHORTWAVE APPEARS MOST LIKELY WILL BE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY OR SATURDAY EVENING,
ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE WEEK IS VERY ROUGH
AND MODELS HAVE THEIR TIMING DIFFERENCES.
WILL END UP CARRYING LOW POPS FOR MOST DAYS THIS WEEK, EXCEPT FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IS MUCH
STRONGER. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OF 1500-2000 J/KG ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE, SOME STRONGER SEVERE
STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY BE THE DAY REALLY
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
CLOUD COVERAGE IS DECREASING AT KABI AND KSJT AT MIDDAY, WHILE
MVFR CEILINGS LINGER AT OUR TAF SITES FARTHER SOUTH. EXPECT A
RESUMPTION OF VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 20Z-21Z WITH A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING CEILINGS AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER. A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR AREA. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND PLACEMENT PRECLUDES A MENTION IN AT
ANY TAF SITE, BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR AND UPDATE IF NEEDED. WITH
THE ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN WHICH WOULD BRING BRIEF LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTH IN THE 07Z-10Z TIME FRAME. SHOULD
HAVE VFR CONDITIONS RESUME 15Z-16Z AT KABI AND KSJT, AND AROUND
MIDDAY AT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS. LOW CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK UP IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHILE CEILINGS INCREASE ABOVE
3000FT FARTHER SOUTH.
EXPECT MAINLY SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND SOUTH WINDS AT DECREASED WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT. ON
MONDAY, SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY 15Z-16Z WITH GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS AT KABI. OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KSJT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 67 87 67 80 / 10 10 20 50
SAN ANGELO 65 86 65 79 / 0 10 30 40
JUNCTION 64 83 62 81 / 10 10 20 40
BROWNWOOD 65 85 64 80 / 20 10 20 30
SWEETWATER 66 89 67 82 / 0 10 20 40
OZONA 65 82 64 76 / 10 10 40 40
BRADY 66 82 64 79 / 10 10 20 40
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...19
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