996
FXUS64 KSJT 122242
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
542 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER RISK MOST DAYS.
- HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ENHANCES THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA WHILE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STORMS IN THE AREA EAST OF A COLEMAN TO JUNCTION
LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THE
ENVIRONMENT (STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLY STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR) WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
(2 PERCENT). LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WHICH IS CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THE
DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST INTO WESTERN PART OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONCHO VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING ON THE DRYLINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS, THE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG INSTABILITY
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES 35-45 KNOTS) WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
A SUPERCELL WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY MORNING WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR AREA.
WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY, WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. THE REST OF OUR AREA WILL HAVE HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S THIS WEEK,
INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT THE BETTER LIFT
WILL BE COMING IN TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH GFS INDICATING 0-6 KM BULK
SHEARS OF 40-50KT AND MUCAPES OF 2500 J/KG, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DRYLINE WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION.
SIMILAR SITUATION WEDNESDAY, BUT DRYLINE MAY PUSH EAST AND BISECT
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. COULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LOWER. LATER NEXT
WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT SATURDAY COULD AGAIN TOUCH OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BE MILD NEXT WEEK, MAINLY IN THE
80S, EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 70S TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE STORMS AND
AGAIN SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. NEXT SUNDAY, HIGHS COULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. OVERNIGHT
LOW WILL BE IN THE 60S, EXCEPT COOLER SUNDAY MORNING IN THE 40S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY (20% CHANCE) ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT COME CLOSE TO A TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 67 87 67 80 / 10 10 20 50
SAN ANGELO 65 86 65 79 / 0 10 30 40
JUNCTION 64 83 62 81 / 10 10 20 40
BROWNWOOD 65 85 64 80 / 20 10 20 30
SWEETWATER 66 89 67 82 / 0 10 20 40
OZONA 65 82 64 76 / 10 10 40 40
BRADY 66 82 64 79 / 10 10 20 40
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...41
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page