984
FXUS64 KSJT 130539
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1239 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, BRINGING LOW RAIN CHANCES
AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA WHILE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STORMS IN THE AREA EAST OF A COLEMAN TO JUNCTION
LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THE
ENVIRONMENT (STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLY STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR) WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
(2 PERCENT). LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WHICH IS CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THE
DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST INTO WESTERN PART OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONCHO VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING ON THE DRYLINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS, THE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG INSTABILITY
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES 35-45 KNOTS) WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
A SUPERCELL WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY MORNING WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR AREA.
WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY, WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. THE REST OF OUR AREA WILL HAVE HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO WEST TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. THE DRYLINE WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND THEN MIX EAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL EXIST, AS STORMS MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. SIMILAR SETUP
ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS, AS THE DRYLINE
MIXES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW, LOW RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY, WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY (20% CHANCE) ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT COME CLOSE TO A TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 84 66 88 68 / 20 10 10 20
SAN ANGELO 84 64 87 65 / 10 10 10 30
JUNCTION 81 62 85 63 / 50 20 10 20
BROWNWOOD 81 64 86 65 / 40 20 10 20
SWEETWATER 87 66 90 67 / 10 0 10 20
OZONA 82 64 83 64 / 10 10 10 30
BRADY 80 64 84 65 / 40 20 10 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...41
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