794
FXUS64 KSJT 131745
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1245 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, BRINGING LOW RAIN CHANCES
AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
CONVECTIVE INITIATION POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING, AS THE DRYLINE DEVELOPS AND SLOSHES EAST TO NEAR THE
WESTERN BORDERS OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT WITH CAPES OF 3000-3500 AHEAD OF IT.
HOWEVER, NOT A TON OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR INITIATION AND DRYLINE
ITSELF DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL HAVE GREAT CONVERGENCE. IF A
STORM CAN DEVELOP, IT WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE PRETTY QUICKLY
WITH THAT TYPE OF INSTABILITY. JUST A MATTER OF "IF". WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.
OTHERWISE STILL WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, PERHAPS INCHING ABOVE
90 DEGREES FOR THOSE AREAS THAT ARE WEST OF THE DRYLINE FOR A FEW
HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO WEST TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. THE DRYLINE WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND THEN MIX EAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL EXIST, AS STORMS MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. SIMILAR SETUP
ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS, AS THE DRYLINE
MIXES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW, LOW RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY, WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT KABI OR KSJT LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING, BUT LEFT OUT MENTION DUE TO LOW POTENTIAL.
BAND OF STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AFFECTING KSOA AND KBBD AT NOON
WILL LIFT TO VFR 19-20Z. STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS OTHERWISE
RETURNS TOWARD MIDNIGHT FOR KSOA AND KJCT, LOWERING TO IFR BY
DAYBREAK. CEILINGS AT KSOA MAY STAY IFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. MVFR
STRATUS RETURNS ACROSS THE REST OF THE TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK,
RISING TO VFR EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL AFFECT KABI
AND KSJT THIS AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN MID MORNING TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 89 68 81 65 / 20 30 50 80
SAN ANGELO 88 65 79 62 / 10 30 50 70
JUNCTION 86 64 80 62 / 10 20 30 50
BROWNWOOD 86 65 80 63 / 10 10 40 60
SWEETWATER 90 68 82 64 / 20 30 50 70
OZONA 85 65 75 62 / 10 30 50 60
BRADY 85 66 78 64 / 10 20 30 50
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...04
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