878
FXUS64 KSJT 131955
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
255 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, BRINGING LOW RAIN CHANCES
AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
DRYLINE EXTENDED JUST WEST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FROM NEAR SNYDER
SOUTH TO BIG SPRING TO EAST OF FT STOCKTON. THERE WAS SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPING WEST OF CROCKETT COUNTY AND IN THE BIG COUNTRY.
SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN INCREASED THE MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, TO A SLIGHT RISK IN THE BIG COUNTRY, WHICH
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD INTO RUNNELS, COLEMAN AND BROWN COUNTIES.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND
CROCKETT COUNTY, WHERE THE SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE MODELS DEVELOP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS QUITE HIGH WITH MUCAPES OF
3000 J/KG, WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 40-45 KTS, SO IF A STORM
DOES DEVELOP, IT COULD BECOME SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. STORMS MOVEMENT WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST, BUT STRONGER STORMS
COULD TAKE A RIGHT TURN EASTWARD.
TUESDAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WHILE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE
TUESDAY NIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLIER IN THE DAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE DRYLINE
AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA IN THE EVENING AND PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IS NOW IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS LESS CERTAIN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS MORNING STORMS COULD LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION IN THE AFTERNOON. DID LOWER POPS IN THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. ISOLATED STORMS WOULD
LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE IN PLAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A COLD
FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT KABI OR KSJT LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING, BUT LEFT OUT MENTION DUE TO LOW POTENTIAL.
BAND OF STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AFFECTING KSOA AND KBBD AT NOON
WILL LIFT TO VFR 19-20Z. STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS OTHERWISE
RETURNS TOWARD MIDNIGHT FOR KSOA AND KJCT, LOWERING TO IFR BY
DAYBREAK. CEILINGS AT KSOA MAY STAY IFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. MVFR
STRATUS RETURNS ACROSS THE REST OF THE TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK,
RISING TO VFR EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL AFFECT KABI
AND KSJT THIS AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN MID MORNING TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 68 81 65 82 / 20 40 80 60
SAN ANGELO 65 79 62 82 / 20 40 70 50
JUNCTION 64 80 62 79 / 20 30 50 50
BROWNWOOD 65 80 63 78 / 20 40 60 60
SWEETWATER 68 82 64 84 / 20 40 70 40
OZONA 65 75 62 80 / 30 40 60 40
BRADY 66 78 64 76 / 20 30 50 50
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...04
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