276
FXUS64 KSJT 141109
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
609 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, BRINGING LOW RAIN CHANCES
AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
ANOTHER DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DRYLINE WILL AGAIN SHIFT
EAST TO NEAR THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO
VALLEY, WITH CAPE VALUES OF 3000+ AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. AGAIN
THOUGH, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND THERE
ARE QUESTIONS ON JUST WHERE AND HOW WIDESPREAD ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE. AS WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT THE LAST FEW DAYS, IT LOOKS LIKE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM IT
IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS WELL. CAMS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE, ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THEM SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS CONVECTION THAN IT LOOKED
LIKE A FEW DAYS AGO. WITH THAT SAID, THE HIGH MODEL BLEND POPS
(60-80%) JUST SEEMS OVERDONE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ALMOST NONE OF THE CAMS SHOWING CONVECTION THIS WIDESPREAD. WILL
DECREASE POPS BACK TO SOMETHING IN THE 30-50% RANGE FOR MOST AREA.
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MUCH LIKE MONDAY, ANY STORM THAT CAN
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 35-45KTS THIS EVENING AND
THIS MAY KEEP ANY STORM ALIVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
EXPECT A REPEAT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A LAZY DRYLINE WILL FIRE OFF A FEW
TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY AND GOOD DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
QUIET WEATHER FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM WITH A
SHARPER DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK. PLEASE KEEP
UP WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AS THE MONTH OF APRIL IS
SEVERE WEATHER SEASON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
ITS A LITTLE PATCHY IN SOME LOCATIONS, BUT OVERALL MVFR CIGS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS MOST WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS THESE SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING INTO A
LOW END VFR DECK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SCATTERING OUT. ADDED A
PROB30 INTO THE KSJT, KABI, AND KSOA TERMINALS WITH THE LATEST
CAMS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CERTAINTY IN TIMING ON WHERE STORMS MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING OF COURSE WILL NEED
TO BE BETTER DEFINED AS WE GET LATER IN THE DAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 82 65 84 60 / 50 50 50 10
SAN ANGELO 81 63 85 60 / 40 50 50 10
JUNCTION 82 62 80 61 / 20 40 60 10
BROWNWOOD 81 64 78 61 / 40 50 70 20
SWEETWATER 83 65 87 59 / 40 50 40 0
OZONA 77 63 82 60 / 40 50 40 10
BRADY 79 64 77 62 / 20 40 70 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...07
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