918
FXUS64 KSJT 141816
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
116 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, BRINGING LOW RAIN CHANCES
AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
ANOTHER DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DRYLINE WILL AGAIN SHIFT
EAST TO NEAR THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO
VALLEY, WITH CAPE VALUES OF 3000+ AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. AGAIN
THOUGH, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND THERE
ARE QUESTIONS ON JUST WHERE AND HOW WIDESPREAD ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE. AS WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT THE LAST FEW DAYS, IT LOOKS LIKE
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM IT
IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS WELL. CAMS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE, ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THEM SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS CONVECTION THAN IT LOOKED
LIKE A FEW DAYS AGO. WITH THAT SAID, THE HIGH MODEL BLEND POPS
(60-80%) JUST SEEMS OVERDONE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ALMOST NONE OF THE CAMS SHOWING CONVECTION THIS WIDESPREAD. WILL
DECREASE POPS BACK TO SOMETHING IN THE 30-50% RANGE FOR MOST AREA.
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MUCH LIKE MONDAY, ANY STORM THAT CAN
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 35-45KTS THIS EVENING AND
THIS MAY KEEP ANY STORM ALIVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH WE WILL LIKELY CAP RAIN CHANCES AT
20% WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING, OR
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN OUR AREA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TO OUR NORTH, AND IN FACT THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IN OUR AREA, WITH
A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
ANY STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE QUIETER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS,
WITH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL, AND ONLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. IN ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAINFALL,
TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT, MOVING SOUTH OF I-10 BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
NORTH OF OUR AREA, THE LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY, WE ARE EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BY NEXT MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTING BACK UP.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
MVFR STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON, HOLDING ON THE LONGEST
IN SOUTHERN TERMINALS, INCLUDING KSOA AND KJCT UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 00Z/WEDNESDAY. IFR STRATUS OTHERWISE RETURNS
ALONG TO KSOA AND KJCT TOWARD OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MVFR
STRATUS RETURNING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE TERMINALS.
IFR/MVFR STRATUS SCATTERS OUT MID/LATE MORNING AT KABI AND KSJT,
BUT MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 65 84 62 87 / 50 30 10 0
SAN ANGELO 63 84 61 87 / 40 30 10 10
JUNCTION 62 79 60 86 / 40 40 10 10
BROWNWOOD 64 80 62 86 / 50 50 20 0
SWEETWATER 65 86 61 88 / 50 20 0 0
OZONA 63 82 61 84 / 50 30 20 10
BRADY 64 79 62 84 / 50 40 20 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04
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