624
FXUS64 KSJT 150509
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1209 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, BRINGING LOW RAIN CHANCES
AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING..
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OFF A DRYLINE...IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN SOUTH TO THE
BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST INTO THE EVENING. A
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION HAS BEEN ISSUED BY SPC THAT INCLUDES PORTIONS
OF THE BIG COUNTRY, CONCHO VALLEY AND CROCKETT COUNTY FOR AN 80
PERCENT CHANCE OF A WATCH. INSTABILITY IS HIGH AT 3000 J/KG. VERY
LARGE HAIL OF 2-3 INCH DIAMETER AND SEVERE WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.
LATER TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT, SOME OF THE SHORTTERM CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALSO HAVE A SECOND GROUP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
PROBABLY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THESE STORMS BECOME
ISOLATED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH WE WILL LIKELY CAP RAIN CHANCES AT
20% WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING, OR
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN OUR AREA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TO OUR NORTH, AND IN FACT THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IN OUR AREA, WITH
A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
ANY STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE QUIETER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS,
WITH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL, AND ONLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. IN ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAINFALL,
TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT, MOVING SOUTH OF I-10 BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
NORTH OF OUR AREA, THE LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY, WE ARE EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BY NEXT MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTING BACK UP.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY
THIS MORNING AND MAY APPROACH THE KJCT TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HAVE CONTINUED THE PROB30 DOWN THERE FOR NOW, BUT HAVE KEPT
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS DRY FOR NOW. GIVEN THE CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTH AND THE EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS, HAVE ALSO PUSHED
BACK THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS (MVFR) CIGS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS BY A FEW HOURS, ALTHOUGH STILL THINK MOST OF THEM WILL
EVENTUALLY SEE THESE MVFR CIGS BY NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE, CAMS CONTINUE TO BE WIDELY SEPARATED IN IF/WHEN
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY LARGE
UNCERTAINTY, WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 63 88 66 89 / 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 62 88 65 88 / 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 61 87 61 88 / 10 10 0 10
BROWNWOOD 62 86 64 86 / 10 10 10 10
SWEETWATER 62 90 66 90 / 0 10 10 10
OZONA 62 85 64 86 / 10 10 10 10
BRADY 62 85 64 86 / 10 10 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07
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