328
FXUS64 KSJT 151740
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1240 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, BRINGING LOW RAIN CHANCES
AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY
THIS MORNING, TRACKING NORTHEAST. THIS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IT AND UPDATE
POPS AHEAD OF IT AS NEEDED THIS MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, A VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2500 J/KG. DRYLINE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED AND SLIDE EAST TO NEAR THE WESTERN BORDERS OF
THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AGAIN,
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND THERE IS
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN
ITSELF, IT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUT TRYING TO PIN DOWN IF/WHERE ALONG THE
DRYLINE A STORM WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP AND HOW WIDESPREAD ANYTHING
MAY BE REMAINS THE UNCERTAINTY. SIMILARLY TO THE YESTERDAY, MODEL
BLEND POPS JUST SEEM EXCESSIVELY HIGH CONSIDERING THE COVERAGE
SEEN IN PRETTY MUCH EVERY CAM. WILL KNOCK DOWN POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD DOWN INTO THE 30-40% RANGE. POPS CAN ALWAYS BE UPDATED AND
INCREASED LATER TODAY IF STORMS START TO DEVELOP.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY QUIET WEATHER FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT STRONG STORM
SYSTEM WITH A SHARPER DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY
RESULT IN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK.
PLEASE KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AS THE MONTH OF
APRIL IS SEVERE WEATHER SEASON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT OUR FOUR SOUTHERN SITES, BUT THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS TO VFR AS
TEMPERATURES WARM, AND CEILINGS EITHER LIFT OR SCATTER OUT.
OTHERWISE, THERE IS AGAIN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR THROUGH 06Z
AT ALL SITES WITH MVFR CEILINGS MOVING BACK INTO OUR SOUTHERN
SITES TONIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 63 89 67 89 / 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 62 88 64 89 / 20 10 10 10
JUNCTION 63 86 61 88 / 10 10 10 10
BROWNWOOD 62 87 63 86 / 20 10 10 10
SWEETWATER 63 90 67 91 / 0 10 10 10
OZONA 63 84 64 86 / 20 10 10 10
BRADY 63 85 63 85 / 20 10 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...20
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