157
FXUS64 KSJT 151803
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
103 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, BRINGING LOW RAIN CHANCES
AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY
THIS MORNING, TRACKING NORTHEAST. THIS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IT AND UPDATE
POPS AHEAD OF IT AS NEEDED THIS MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, A VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2500 J/KG. DRYLINE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED AND SLIDE EAST TO NEAR THE WESTERN BORDERS OF
THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AGAIN,
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND THERE IS
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN
ITSELF, IT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUT TRYING TO PIN DOWN IF/WHERE ALONG THE
DRYLINE A STORM WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP AND HOW WIDESPREAD ANYTHING
MAY BE REMAINS THE UNCERTAINTY. SIMILARLY TO THE YESTERDAY, MODEL
BLEND POPS JUST SEEM EXCESSIVELY HIGH CONSIDERING THE COVERAGE
SEEN IN PRETTY MUCH EVERY CAM. WILL KNOCK DOWN POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD DOWN INTO THE 30-40% RANGE. POPS CAN ALWAYS BE UPDATED AND
INCREASED LATER TODAY IF STORMS START TO DEVELOP.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA. THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
EAST, JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. A STRONG CAP WILL BE PRESENT, SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT WE WILL SEE ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE
DRYLINE. IF A FEW STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY MAY MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW, POPS WERE KEPT ON THE
LOW SIDE (AROUND 20%), BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. MEANWHILE, A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) RAIN
CHANCES. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER
0.25 INCHES) AS ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
FAIRLY QUICKLY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER. COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE APPROACHES, RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW END (20-30%) RAIN
CHANCES ARE FORECAST. THE CONTINUED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S ON MONDAY. A STEADY WARM UP IS THEN ANTICIPATED INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 70S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
BACK INTO THE 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT OUR FOUR SOUTHERN SITES, BUT THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS TO VFR AS
TEMPERATURES WARM, AND CEILINGS EITHER LIFT OR SCATTER OUT.
OTHERWISE, THERE IS AGAIN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR THROUGH 06Z
AT ALL SITES WITH MVFR CEILINGS MOVING BACK INTO OUR SOUTHERN
SITES TONIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 63 89 67 89 / 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 62 88 64 89 / 20 10 10 10
JUNCTION 63 86 61 88 / 10 10 10 10
BROWNWOOD 62 87 63 86 / 20 10 10 10
SWEETWATER 63 90 67 91 / 0 10 10 10
OZONA 63 84 64 86 / 20 10 10 10
BRADY 63 85 63 85 / 20 10 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...20
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