961
FXUS64 KSJT 151838
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
138 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, BRINGING LOW RAIN CHANCES
AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN
DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEASTERN THROCKMORTON
COUNTY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
DRYLINE, ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN ABILENE TO OZONA LINE. THE
ONE MISSING COMPONENT TO AID IN CONVECTION IS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
HOWEVER, SHOULD THESE STORMS DEVELOP, THEY WILL HAVE 2500 TO 3000
J/KG OF CAPE, AND 45 TO 60 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS WELL. SO,
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO INCREASE TO
SEVERE LEVELS, WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS,
ENDING GRADUALLY AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY WANES. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S. FOR
THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
WITH EVEN LESS SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW, WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE
COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA. THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST
TO ADVANCE EAST, JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. A STRONG CAP WILL BE
PRESENT, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT WE WILL SEE ANY
CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE. IF A FEW STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY MAY
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW,
POPS WERE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE (AROUND 20%), BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. MEANWHILE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, SENDING A COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, WITH LOW
TO MEDIUM (20-40%) RAIN CHANCES. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER 0.25 INCHES) AS ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE APPROACHES, RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW END (20-30%)
RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST. THE CONTINUED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ON MONDAY. A STEADY WARM UP IS THEN ANTICIPATED
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 70S AND
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO THE 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT OUR FOUR SOUTHERN SITES, BUT THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS TO VFR AS
TEMPERATURES WARM, AND CEILINGS EITHER LIFT OR SCATTER OUT.
OTHERWISE, THERE IS AGAIN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR THROUGH 06Z
AT ALL SITES WITH MVFR CEILINGS MOVING BACK INTO OUR SOUTHERN
SITES TONIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z.
HOWEVER, OTHER THAN THE
DRYLINE TO HELP WITH INITIATION
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 63 89 67 89 / 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 62 88 64 89 / 20 10 10 10
JUNCTION 63 86 61 88 / 10 10 10 10
BROWNWOOD 62 87 63 86 / 20 10 10 10
SWEETWATER 63 90 67 91 / 0 10 10 10
OZONA 63 84 64 86 / 20 10 10 10
BRADY 63 85 63 85 / 20 10 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...20
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