841
FXUS64 KSJT 112325
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
625 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED MOST
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED
STORMS THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR LOW. WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA THAT SAW THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL, BUT NOT LIKELY
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ON TUESDAY, WE'LL
SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND WINDS RETURNING TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO
15 MPH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A RETURN TO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL SET UP OVER TEXAS. THIS RIDGING WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, AND INTO THE EASTERN U. S. BY THIS
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, A LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE WILL SPREAD EAST INTO WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS, WARMING
850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS TODAY INTO THE 20
TO 25 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AREA
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN, INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. SO
WHILE MOST OF OUR AREA WON'T FEEL THE FULL BRUNT OF THIS THERMAL
RIDGE, WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHWESTERN CONCHO VALLEY.
HIGHS COULD NEAR THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR AREAS WEST OF A
THROCKMORTON TO ABILENE TO SAN ANGELO LINE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MODELS SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE
INTERMITTENT LOW (20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY
MORNING BUT REMAIN AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
FOG FORMATION OVER THE WET SOILS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. ALREADY INCLUDING THE FOG IN THE KJCT AND KBBD TERMINALS
WHERE SOILS ARE MOST MOIST, AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KSJT TO SEE IF
IT NEEDS TO BE ADDED AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 58 85 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 55 87 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 55 85 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 55 82 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 58 89 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 57 86 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 56 80 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07
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