001
FXUS64 KSJT 120502
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1202 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED MOST
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED
STORMS THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR LOW. WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA THAT SAW THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL, BUT NOT LIKELY
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ON TUESDAY, WE'LL
SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND WINDS RETURNING TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO
15 MPH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST TO NEAR OUR WESTERN
BORDER COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY LOOKS TOO
LIMITED AT THIS TIME TO SUPPORT ANY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE DRYLINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GETTING HOTTER IN THE MID-TO-LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR FRIDAY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
90 IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, TO 100-103 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST
BIG COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST CONCHO VALLEY. A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LEE SURFACE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO TEXAS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY,
WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EAST ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF WEST TEXAS. AT
THIS TIME, CARRYING LOW (15-20 POPS) SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT, FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA, TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING OFF THE
DRYLINE INTO THAT AREA. WITH STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR AND
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY STRONG INSTABILITY, THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EMBEDDED WAVE
ENTERING THE AREA, CARRYING LOW (20-30 POPS) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, AND DEVELOPMENT
OF A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NIGHTS WARM AND MORE
HUMID.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA
WITH AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE ALOFT. DETAILS IN TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE UNCERTAIN WITH
THIS BEING DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY
MORNING BUT REMAIN AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
FOG FORMATION OVER THE WET SOILS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. ALREADY INCLUDING THE FOG IN THE KJCT AND KBBD TERMINALS
WHERE SOILS ARE MOST MOIST, AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KSJT TO SEE IF
IT NEEDS TO BE ADDED AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 85 63 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 87 62 93 66 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 86 60 92 64 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 83 59 89 63 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 88 65 95 68 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 86 62 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 81 60 88 64 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...07
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