501
FXUS64 KSJT 121016
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
516 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
EXPECT WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST TO NEAR OUR WESTERN
BORDER COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY LOOKS TOO
LIMITED AT THIS TIME TO SUPPORT ANY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE DRYLINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GETTING HOTTER IN THE MID-TO-LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR FRIDAY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
90 IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, TO 100-103 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST
BIG COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST CONCHO VALLEY. A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LEE SURFACE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO TEXAS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY,
WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EAST ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF WEST TEXAS. AT
THIS TIME, CARRYING LOW (15-20 POPS) SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT, FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA, TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING OFF THE
DRYLINE INTO THAT AREA. WITH STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR AND
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY STRONG INSTABILITY, THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EMBEDDED WAVE
ENTERING THE AREA, CARRYING LOW (20-30 POPS) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, AND DEVELOPMENT
OF A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NIGHTS WARM AND MORE
HUMID.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA
WITH AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE ALOFT. DETAILS IN TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE UNCERTAIN WITH
THIS BEING DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 85 63 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 87 62 93 66 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 86 60 92 64 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 83 59 89 63 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 88 65 95 68 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 86 62 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 81 60 88 64 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...21
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