974
FXUS64 KSJT 121717
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1217 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
EXPECT WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
A 590DAM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY, BEFORE STARTING TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. DESPITE THIS CHANGE, SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THANKS TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE WARM AIRMASS WON'T GO ANYWHERE, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID-90S WITH MILD NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A MEDIUM (~50%) CHANCE THAT AREAS OF THE WESTERN BIG
COUNTRY COULD REACH HIGHS OVER 100 EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOME INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS THURSDAY
EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN HASKELL AND
THROCKMORTON COUNTIES. FOR NOW, RAIN CHANCES WERE KEPT BELOW 15%
IN THIS AREA DUE TO A LACK OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
MODELS POINT TO A PATTERN CHANGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOW
THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN
US. THIS WILL PLACE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION. REGARDLESS, INSTABILITY LOOKS TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
AHEAD OF A DRYLINE THAT SHOULD SET UP AND GO THROUGH A DIURNAL CYCLE
EACH DAY. THIS WILL TRIGGER LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DETAILS
AND INGREDIENTS ARE STILL UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR THIS IS A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO
REVIEW ANY SEVERE WEATHER PLANS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 64 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 63 93 66 93 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 61 92 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 59 90 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 65 95 68 97 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 63 91 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 60 88 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...21
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