279
FXUS64 KSJT 131747
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1247 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, A 590DAM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
WHILE AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PANHANDLE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO ABOUT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 25. THE RESULTING WARM,
MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S AGAIN WITH UPPER 90S ANTICIPATED FOR THE WESTERN BIG
COUNTRY. BY LATE AFTERNOON, STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE
FROM THE PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD TO LUBBOCK. THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
AS THEY APPROACH THE BIG COUNTRY, BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS COULD
STILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING SO POPS WERE
INCREASED TO 10-15%.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS
ELSEWHERE RANGING IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S,
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BIG COUNTRY THURSDAY
EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER AT THIS TIME.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SOME BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE
REGION, BRINGING SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA. THIS
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK, AND BRING SOME INCREASED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE DRIVEN DIURNALLY
(FROM DAYTIME HEATING) EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT, SO
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW TO MEDIUM RANGE (20-50%).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10KT ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 12Z
TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT POSSIBLE AT SOME LOCATIONS AFTER 15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 67 94 73 95 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 66 92 71 93 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 63 91 67 90 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 63 90 67 90 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 69 96 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 64 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 64 89 68 89 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...SK
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