406
FXUS64 KSJT 141021
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
521 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S, UPPER 90S NORTHWEST BIG COUNTRY. ALSO, A DEVELOPING
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE TO OUR WEST WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH. EXPECT
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY THIS EVENING PER HI-RES MODELS. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
VERY LOW BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORMS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS, WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO 103
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES, WITH LOW TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
DRYLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS,
PLACING WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE TO NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER EACH AFTERNOON, BUT
OVERALL EXPECT THE CAP TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY, WITH A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE HOTTEST IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 104 AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER, IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE ADDED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR THIS SYSTEM, A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) RANGE. HIGHS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S, WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXPECT INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 94 73 96 72 / 0 0 10 0
SAN ANGELO 93 72 94 69 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 91 67 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 90 68 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 96 74 100 72 / 0 0 10 0
OZONA 90 69 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 89 68 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...21
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