812
FXUS64 KSJT 150512
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1212 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) ARE INDICATING RAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING (6 PM CDT ONWARD) INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS NEAR THE DRYLINE OFF
TO OUR WEST. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE (20-30%)
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THIS SUPPORT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WHERE HIGHER COVERAGE IS SUPPORTED GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF A TROUGH OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. WE ARE
OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE FAR
WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR AREA THIS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WOULD INCLUDE
AREAS WEST OF A HASKELL TO OZONA LINE. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUST IS THE MAIN CONCERN.
THEN FOR TOMORROW, ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY (20% CHANCE) IS FORECAST WITH THE SAME BASIC DRYLINE SETUP
IN PLACE. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUST IS THE MAIN CONCERN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH UNSEASONABLY HOT AND GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE RANGING IN
THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, HOWEVER, MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SOME BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE
REGION, BRINGING SOME UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TO THE AREA. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK, AND BRING
SOME INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GENERALLY BE DRIVEN DIURNALLY (FROM DAYTIME HEATING) EACH
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
THIS FAR OUT, SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW TO MEDIUM RANGE
(20-50%). HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID
90S, WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE MID MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT KABI, AND 20-25 KTS FARTHER SOUTH. AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AT KABI AND
KSJT, BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 71 95 72 92 / 20 0 10 0
SAN ANGELO 69 93 71 94 / 20 0 0 0
JUNCTION 66 90 69 90 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 66 90 70 89 / 20 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 72 99 72 97 / 20 0 0 0
OZONA 67 89 70 92 / 20 0 0 0
BRADY 66 89 70 88 / 10 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...04
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