068
FXUS64 KSJT 151129
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
629 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED HIGH BASED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY
TODAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED, AS A SURFACE LOW IN THE PANHANDLE
BRINGS BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
100 DEGREE NORTH OF I-20 IN THE BIG COUNTRY. A DRYLINE WILL ALSO
BE DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN IN THE AFTERNOON. CAMS
INDICATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND MOVING EAST IN THE EVENING. A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN. WINDS WILL DECREASING BY EARLY EVENING, WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS RUNNING 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE HOTTEST ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY WHERE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 104 ARE FORECAST. HIGHS ELSEWHERE
WILL BE INT HE LOW TO MID 90S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT
COOLER, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THE DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO ADVANCE EAST TO NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE CAP
SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
DRYLINE, BUT HAVE CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL DEEPEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN EVENTUALLY EJECT EAST TOWARD THE GREAT PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EAST OF THE DRYLINE. LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%) RAIN CHANCES
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON, WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 30KTS AT KABI, WITH 20-25KTS FARTHER
SOUTH. LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KSJT THIS MORNING. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT KABI AND KSJT MID
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE NOT INCLUDING IN THE TERMINALS DUE TO
LOW POTENTIAL, VERY STRONG WINDS OVER 50 KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CEILINGS OTHERWISE RETURN TO KJCT
TOWARD 11Z SATURDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 71 95 72 92 / 20 0 10 0
SAN ANGELO 69 93 71 94 / 20 0 0 0
JUNCTION 66 90 69 90 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 66 90 70 89 / 20 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 72 99 72 97 / 20 0 0 0
OZONA 67 89 70 92 / 20 0 0 0
BRADY 66 89 70 88 / 10 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...04
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