289
FXUS64 KSJT 151720
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED HIGH BASED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY
TODAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED, AS A SURFACE LOW IN THE PANHANDLE
BRINGS BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
100 DEGREE NORTH OF I-20 IN THE BIG COUNTRY. A DRYLINE WILL ALSO
BE DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN IN THE AFTERNOON. CAMS
INDICATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND MOVING EAST IN THE EVENING. A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN. WINDS WILL DECREASING BY EARLY EVENING, WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS RUNNING 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE HOTTEST ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY WHERE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 104 ARE FORECAST. HIGHS ELSEWHERE
WILL BE INT HE LOW TO MID 90S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT
COOLER, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THE DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO ADVANCE EAST TO NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE CAP
SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
DRYLINE, BUT HAVE CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL DEEPEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN EVENTUALLY EJECT EAST TOWARD THE GREAT PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EAST OF THE DRYLINE. LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%) RAIN CHANCES
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL SITES, WITH BKN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH, WITH ISOLATED --SHRA AT TIMES. SOUTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH 00Z OR SO, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25-30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF
THESE STORMS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END BEFORE 06Z. WITH THE LLJ
INCREASING AGAIN OVERNIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES STAYING WARM, GUSTS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AT MOST SITES. AS FAR AS
CIGS, KJCT COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 10Z AND
15Z SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN SATURDAY
BY MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 70 95 72 92 / 20 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 68 93 71 93 / 20 0 0 0
JUNCTION 66 90 69 90 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 66 90 70 89 / 20 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 71 99 72 96 / 30 0 10 0
OZONA 67 89 70 92 / 20 0 0 0
BRADY 66 89 70 87 / 20 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...20
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