172
FXUS64 KSJT 152146
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
446 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED HIGH BASED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY
TODAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
THERE IS A THICK LAYER OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS ARE
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN OUR AREA MAINLY IN THE 80S. HOWEVER, THE
DRYLINE AND CLEARING OF SOME OF THESE CLOUDS FOR OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES IS STILL ANTICIPATED, SO TEMPERATURES COULD QUICKLY JUMP
UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THIS EVENING, HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20, AS CAMS HAVE
SHOWN REPEATED RUNS OF A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THIS
AREA, BUT THE CONCHO VALLEY COULD ALSO SEE SOME STORMS MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN BEING SEVERE WIND GUSTS, ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL CAN'T BE
RULED OUT EITHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN, WITH
PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE, AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TOMORROW, EXPECTING MORE CLEARING OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS, AND WITH THAT, TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE BIG
COUNTRY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
A FAIRLY PROLONGED UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON STORE STARTING
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A LARGELY
MOIST, UNSTABLE, AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DRYLINE
WILL SLOSH BACK AND FORCE THIS WEEKEND, LARGELY ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN AND MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS THOSE AREAS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL UNCERTAIN HOW
MUCH OF IT WILL MAKE IT EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS, ALTHOUGH
MOST CAMS SHOW VERY LITTLE.
A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHWEST US AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATE AROUND IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
SLIDE SOUTH INTO TEXAS, AND MAY END UP STALLING SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA AT SOME POINT MID WEEK. VERY UNCERTAIN IN THE DETAILS,
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF ANY SHORTWAVES. AND TIMING A
FRONTAL LOCATION IN LATE MAY IN TEXAS IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT,
ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING HOW MUCH OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT MAY
BE DRIVEN BY CONVECTION ANYWAY. WITH ALL THAT SAID, WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF LARGELY BROAD BRUSHING LOW TO MEDIUM PFEW250OPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR MID/END OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.
EXCEPTION LIKELY WILL BE MONDAY IN THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN
SYSTEM WHERE READINGS MAY BE ABLE TO SOAR INTO THE 90S OR EVEN
JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK ALONG OR NEAR THE DRYLINE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 439 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEPICTED IN THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) THROUGH ABOUT 3Z. CHANCES ARE
LOW (20-30%) AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE. STRONG
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE,
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST ACROSS KJCT, KSOA, AND KBBD. THESE
CEILINGS SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. GUTSY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 70 95 72 92 / 20 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 68 93 71 93 / 20 0 0 0
JUNCTION 66 90 69 90 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 66 90 70 89 / 20 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 71 99 72 96 / 30 0 10 0
OZONA 67 89 70 92 / 20 0 0 0
BRADY 66 89 70 87 / 20 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...41
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