546
FXUS64 KSJT 161714
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1214 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WARM AND DRY TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO 100 DEGREES RETURN TO
THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY, WITH LESS HOT TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES FARTHER ALONG I-10 AND EASTWARD IN
THE HEARTLAND. PATCHY STRATUS MAY TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE NW HILL
COUNTRY AND I-10 CORRIDOR EARLY/MID MORNING.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN TODAY AS A LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS IN WEST
TEXAS, SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST IN THE BIG COUNTRY
WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, UNSEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WITH UPPER
90S TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE EVEN HOTTER, IN
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 104 ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO THE LOW
TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST OF THE DRYLINE, ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES, LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.
A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF WEEK
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LIFT. MEDIUM TO HIGH
(60-8 0%) RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EVEN AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS,
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, CONTINUING AT LEAST LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-50%) RAIN CHANCES. IN ADDITION, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK, BUT THE DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE APPARENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
MORNING MVFR STRATUS SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND EXPECT MOST AREA TO
BECOME VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. A RETURN OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE, THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY,
WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 20KTS AT ALL LOCATIONS AT TIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 94 71 90 73 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 93 70 92 73 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 89 69 89 72 / 0 0 10 0
BROWNWOOD 90 69 87 72 / 0 0 10 10
SWEETWATER 99 71 95 73 / 0 0 0 10
OZONA 89 69 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 88 69 86 72 / 0 0 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...07
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