305
FXUS64 KSJT 162352
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
652 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (30-70%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
FAIRLY TYPICAL MAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S AND 90S AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S. THIS LEADS TO CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000+ RANGE, BUT WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 13C, CAP IS HEALTHY. DRYLINE IS
BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH
PLANS AND WILL MAKE MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARDS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRYLINE AND THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP,
BUT ITS GOING TO BE TOUGH. MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE THE CAP BREAK
WILL BE ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL AID, BUT THESE STORMS USUALLY STRUGGLE TO CROSS
THE PECOS INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE OTHER LOCATION TO WATCH
WILL BE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE BIG COUNTRY WHERE DRYLINE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN AN AREA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THUS A WEAKER CAP. WILL ADD AN ISOLATED
MENTION OF STORMS TO A SMALL PORTION OF HASKELL AND FISHER
COUNTIES, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A HASKELL TO STAMFORD TO ROBY LINE
FOR A BRIEF FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR TOMORROW AS WELL. MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE BUT WILL BREAK UP AND BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WARM AGAIN, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DRYLINE WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR THE 100 DEGREE MARK. AGAIN, PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY BUT CAP WILL WILL MAKE CONVECTIVE INITIATION VERY
DIFFICULT WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER. MAY
SEE A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS TRY TO FLY CROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY SUNDAY MORNING BUT THESE NOT LIKELY TO AMOUNT TO VERY
MUCH. WILL MONITOR BUT WILL NOT ADD POPS FOR THIS SMALL CHANCE AT
THIS POINT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WE WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVELS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HOT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, WITH
HIGHS FROM AROUND 90 DEGREES EAST OF A CLYDE TO JUNCTION LINE, UP
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 102 DEGREES WEST OF THAT LINE, WITH
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN STERLING, NOLAN, AND FISHER
COUNTIES. LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE
DRYLINE SHARPENING UP, AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WE WILL HAVE A LOW (20%-30%) CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF I-10 MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE PATTERN BEGINS SHIFTING, AS A
SHORTWAVE FROM THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. S. EJECTS INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO TEXAS.
AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH AND MOVES OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND COMBINES WITH
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK, AND THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL AT THIS TIME FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING
TROUBLE WITH THE BEHAVIOR OF THE FRONT THIS FAR OUT, BUT SHOULD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, IT'S LIKELY THAT IT
WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH OUT AREA, AS OPPOSED TO STALLING
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA. EITHER WAY, THIS WOULD BE A FAVORABLE
PATTERN (60%+ RAIN CHANCES) FOR PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE TWO MAIN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AT LEAST WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER TEXAS
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. SINCE IT IS MAY, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS EVENT AS WE APPROACH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.
WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
AREA, WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES COOL BACK OFF CLOSER TO NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S (POSSIBLY EVEN 70S) FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 507 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
ALL TERMINALS GRADUALLY RETURNING TO MVFR CEILINGS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER STORY, WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KTS AT ALL LOCATIONS AT
TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 18Z ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 71 90 73 94 / 0 0 10 20
SAN ANGELO 70 92 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 69 89 72 91 / 0 10 0 0
BROWNWOOD 69 87 72 89 / 0 10 10 20
SWEETWATER 71 95 73 100 / 0 0 10 10
OZONA 69 91 71 94 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 69 86 72 89 / 0 10 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...TP
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