966
FXUS64 KSJT 170543
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1243 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (30-70%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
FAIRLY TYPICAL MAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S AND 90S AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S. THIS LEADS TO CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000+ RANGE, BUT WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 13C, CAP IS HEALTHY. DRYLINE IS
BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH
PLANS AND WILL MAKE MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARDS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRYLINE AND THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP,
BUT ITS GOING TO BE TOUGH. MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE THE CAP BREAK
WILL BE ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL AID, BUT THESE STORMS USUALLY STRUGGLE TO CROSS
THE PECOS INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE OTHER LOCATION TO WATCH
WILL BE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE BIG COUNTRY WHERE DRYLINE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN AN AREA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THUS A WEAKER CAP. WILL ADD AN ISOLATED
MENTION OF STORMS TO A SMALL PORTION OF HASKELL AND FISHER
COUNTIES, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A HASKELL TO STAMFORD TO ROBY LINE
FOR A BRIEF FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR TOMORROW AS WELL. MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE BUT WILL BREAK UP AND BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WARM AGAIN, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DRYLINE WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR THE 100 DEGREE MARK. AGAIN, PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY BUT CAP WILL WILL MAKE CONVECTIVE INITIATION VERY
DIFFICULT WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER. MAY
SEE A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS TRY TO FLY CROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY SUNDAY MORNING BUT THESE NOT LIKELY TO AMOUNT TO VERY
MUCH. WILL MONITOR BUT WILL NOT ADD POPS FOR THIS SMALL CHANCE AT
THIS POINT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN BY MONDAY. A TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION EARLY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE WILL BE SITTING JUST TO OUR WEST.
THESE TWO FEATURES COMBINED WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
LOW (20-30%) FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP CAN BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE
MAJORITY OF THE BIG COUNTRY, AND SOME AREAS DOWN INTO THE CONCHO
VALLEY HAVE BEEN OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
MONDAY BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
MOVING INTO TUESDAY, THE PASSING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE EAST AND SWING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA
SOMETIME ON TUESDAY. A LESS PRONOUNCED DRYLINE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE TO OUR WEST AS WELL. GIVEN THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT, THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THE DRYLINE, WE WILL SEE EVEN MORE SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
THEREFORE BE HIGHER (50-70%) ON TUESDAY. IT REMAINS TO A BIT
UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOULD THIS BOUNDARY STALL AS MODELS CURRENTLY
INDICATE THAT IT WILL, HIGH RAIN CHANCES (80% CHANCE) WILL LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. IN FACT, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS
OUTLOOKED OUR AREA FOR A MARGINAL RISK (5 TO 15% CHANCE) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL
CLOSELY FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENTS.
ALSO, BY THE TIME WE HIT WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND STARTS MOVING TO THE
EAST. THIS REMAINS A BIT FAR OUT AND THUS RATHER UNCERTAIN, BUT IT
IS WORTH A MENTION AS LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOP THIS LOW AND
BRING IT ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS BY LATE WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (50-60%) IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR FUTURE UPDATES REGARDING THE SEVERE
WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
MVFR STRATUS WAS MOVING INTO KJCT AND WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 28KTS AT KABI. MVFR STRATUS WILL INCREASE OR
SCATTER OUT BY 18Z ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS, THOUGH IT MAY
LINGER AT KBBD UNTIL 20Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 73 94 72 87 / 0 20 0 60
SAN ANGELO 72 96 72 91 / 0 0 0 40
JUNCTION 72 91 72 91 / 0 10 0 30
BROWNWOOD 72 89 72 88 / 0 10 0 50
SWEETWATER 73 100 71 88 / 0 10 10 40
OZONA 71 94 72 91 / 0 0 0 30
BRADY 72 89 72 88 / 0 10 0 40
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...04
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