780
FXUS64 KSJT 170651
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
151 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (30-80%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CONDITIONAL ON BREAKING CAP ALONG THE
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. DRYLINE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM IRAAN TO
STERLING CITY TO COLORADO CITY, TO WEST OF SWEETWATER AND ROTAN
LATE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS,
ALONG/NORTH OF I-20. IF A STORM DOES DEVELOP IT COULD BECOME
SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THE TIMING
MAINLY AFTER 6 PM. SHORTER RANGE CAMS DO NOT INDICATE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT, SO MOST LIKELY, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HOWEVER.
LOW CLOUDS OTHERWISE SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING,
SCATTERING OUT MIDDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN
THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY TO UPPER 80S FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A
RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN BY MONDAY. A TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION EARLY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE WILL BE SITTING JUST TO OUR WEST.
THESE TWO FEATURES COMBINED WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
LOW (20-30%) FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP CAN BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE
MAJORITY OF THE BIG COUNTRY, AND SOME AREAS DOWN INTO THE CONCHO
VALLEY HAVE BEEN OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
MONDAY BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
MOVING INTO TUESDAY, THE PASSING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE EAST AND SWING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA
SOMETIME ON TUESDAY. A LESS PRONOUNCED DRYLINE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE TO OUR WEST AS WELL. GIVEN THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT, THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THE DRYLINE, WE WILL SEE EVEN MORE SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
THEREFORE BE HIGHER (50-70%) ON TUESDAY. IT REMAINS TO A BIT
UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOULD THIS BOUNDARY STALL AS MODELS CURRENTLY
INDICATE THAT IT WILL, HIGH RAIN CHANCES (80% CHANCE) WILL LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. IN FACT, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS
OUTLOOKED OUR AREA FOR A MARGINAL RISK (5 TO 15% CHANCE) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL
CLOSELY FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENTS.
ALSO, BY THE TIME WE HIT WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND STARTS MOVING TO THE
EAST. THIS REMAINS A BIT FAR OUT AND THUS RATHER UNCERTAIN, BUT IT
IS WORTH A MENTION AS LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOP THIS LOW AND
BRING IT ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS BY LATE WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (50-60%) IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR FUTURE UPDATES REGARDING THE SEVERE
WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
MVFR STRATUS WAS MOVING INTO KJCT AND WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 28KTS AT KABI. MVFR STRATUS WILL INCREASE OR
SCATTER OUT BY 18Z ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS, THOUGH IT MAY
LINGER AT KBBD UNTIL 20Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 90 73 94 72 / 0 0 20 0
SAN ANGELO 92 72 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 88 72 91 72 / 10 0 10 0
BROWNWOOD 87 72 89 72 / 10 0 10 0
SWEETWATER 95 73 100 71 / 0 0 10 10
OZONA 91 71 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 86 72 89 72 / 10 0 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...04
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