791
FXUS64 KSJT 171842
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
142 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (30-80%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THE RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BEFORE A BUSIER REST OF THE WEEK.
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 3000+ J/KG, BUT ALSO FAIRLY STRONGLY CAPPED WITH VERY
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST TO NEAR THE
WESTERN BORDER OF THE AREA AND THERE WILL BE SOME CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT CAMS SUGGEST NOT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE
CAP. WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS. WILL INCLUDE
SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A WEAKER CAP SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MEXICO AND CROSS THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY THIS
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED POPS DOWN THERE.
DRY FOR MONDAY FOR NOW, EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BIG COUNTRY. MOST OF THE CAMS ARE DRY, BUT NAMNEST HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. CAP REMAINS STRONG
AND WILL LIKELY HOLD, BUT GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE FROM THE NAMNEST
WILL INCLUDE A SMALL POP OVER THAT AREA. OTHERWISE, BREEZY AND
WARM TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
ACROSS MANY AREA. BEHIND THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BIG
COUNTRY, MAY SEE A FEW READINGS NEAR THE CENTURY MARK.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN BY MONDAY. A TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION EARLY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE WILL BE SITTING JUST TO OUR WEST.
THESE TWO FEATURES COMBINED WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
LOW (20-30%) FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP CAN BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE
MAJORITY OF THE BIG COUNTRY, AND SOME AREAS DOWN INTO THE CONCHO
VALLEY HAVE BEEN OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
MONDAY BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
MOVING INTO TUESDAY, THE PASSING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE EAST AND SWING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA
SOMETIME ON TUESDAY. A LESS PRONOUNCED DRYLINE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE TO OUR WEST AS WELL. GIVEN THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT, THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THE DRYLINE, WE WILL SEE EVEN MORE SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
THEREFORE BE HIGHER (50-70%) ON TUESDAY. IT REMAINS TO A BIT
UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOULD THIS BOUNDARY STALL AS MODELS CURRENTLY
INDICATE THAT IT WILL, HIGH RAIN CHANCES (80% CHANCE) WILL LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. IN FACT, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS
OUTLOOKED OUR AREA FOR A MARGINAL RISK (5 TO 15% CHANCE) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL
CLOSELY FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENTS.
ALSO, BY THE TIME WE HIT WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND STARTS MOVING TO THE
EAST. THIS REMAINS A BIT FAR OUT AND THUS RATHER UNCERTAIN, BUT IT
IS WORTH A MENTION AS LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOP THIS LOW AND
BRING IT ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS BY LATE WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (50-60%) IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR FUTURE UPDATES REGARDING THE SEVERE
WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
IFR/MVFR CIGS CONTINUE AT MOST WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS, BUT
DO EXPECT IMPROVEMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MOST SITES AT
LEAST CLIMBING TO LOW END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN ALTER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 73 93 72 87 / 0 10 0 70
SAN ANGELO 72 94 72 91 / 0 0 0 70
JUNCTION 72 90 72 90 / 20 10 10 50
BROWNWOOD 72 89 72 88 / 10 10 0 70
SWEETWATER 72 98 71 87 / 0 10 10 50
OZONA 71 92 71 90 / 0 0 10 30
BRADY 72 88 72 88 / 10 10 0 60
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...07
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