710
FXUS64 KSJT 172017
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
317 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
- SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (30-80%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THE RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BEFORE A BUSIER REST OF THE WEEK.
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 3000+ J/KG, BUT ALSO FAIRLY STRONGLY CAPPED WITH VERY
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST TO NEAR THE
WESTERN BORDER OF THE AREA AND THERE WILL BE SOME CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT CAMS SUGGEST NOT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE
CAP. WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS. WILL INCLUDE
SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A WEAKER CAP SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MEXICO AND CROSS THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY THIS
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED POPS DOWN THERE.
DRY FOR MONDAY FOR NOW, EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BIG COUNTRY. MOST OF THE CAMS ARE DRY, BUT NAMNEST HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. CAP REMAINS STRONG
AND WILL LIKELY HOLD, BUT GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE FROM THE NAMNEST
WILL INCLUDE A SMALL POP OVER THAT AREA. OTHERWISE, BREEZY AND
WARM TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
ACROSS MANY AREA. BEHIND THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BIG
COUNTRY, MAY SEE A FEW READINGS NEAR THE CENTURY MARK.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MONDAY NIGHT, AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A LARGE
WESTERN TROUGH, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A RETREATING
DRYLINE MAINLY ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER IN THE BIG COUNTRY.
ON TUESDAY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES, A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO WEST TEXAS. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT, UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH (SURFACE BASED
CAPES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG) OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY, AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
POTENTIALLY PRODUCE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, AND THE SPC HAS
PLACED MOST OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT, THESE STORMS COULD LAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WE WILL REMAIN UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED IN THE AREA AS WELL. WITH PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE
STILL IN PLACE DUE TO THE FRONT BEING STALLED, AND UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA, WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ONE MORE, IF
NOT A COUPLE MORE, ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY. THE DETAILS SURROUNDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO MAINLY THE 80S ON TUESDAY,
WITH 70S AND 80S FOR HIGHS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
COOLER, WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE, OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LIKELY AVERAGE IN THE 60S THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
IFR/MVFR CIGS CONTINUE AT MOST WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS, BUT
DO EXPECT IMPROVEMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MOST SITES AT
LEAST CLIMBING TO LOW END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN ALTER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 73 93 72 87 / 0 10 0 70
SAN ANGELO 72 94 72 91 / 0 0 0 70
JUNCTION 72 90 72 90 / 20 10 10 50
BROWNWOOD 72 89 72 88 / 10 10 0 70
SWEETWATER 72 98 71 87 / 0 10 20 50
OZONA 71 92 71 90 / 0 0 10 30
BRADY 72 88 72 88 / 10 10 0 60
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07
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