490
FXUS64 KSJT 180603
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
103 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
- SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (30-80%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THE RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BEFORE A BUSIER REST OF THE WEEK.
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 3000+ J/KG, BUT ALSO FAIRLY STRONGLY CAPPED WITH VERY
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST TO NEAR THE
WESTERN BORDER OF THE AREA AND THERE WILL BE SOME CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT CAMS SUGGEST NOT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE
CAP. WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS. WILL INCLUDE
SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A WEAKER CAP SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MEXICO AND CROSS THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY THIS
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED POPS DOWN THERE.
DRY FOR MONDAY FOR NOW, EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BIG COUNTRY. MOST OF THE CAMS ARE DRY, BUT NAMNEST HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. CAP REMAINS STRONG
AND WILL LIKELY HOLD, BUT GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE FROM THE NAMNEST
WILL INCLUDE A SMALL POP OVER THAT AREA. OTHERWISE, BREEZY AND
WARM TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
ACROSS MANY AREA. BEHIND THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BIG
COUNTRY, MAY SEE A FEW READINGS NEAR THE CENTURY MARK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
A TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON TUESDAY
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT. MEANWHILE, A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE WILL BE SITTING JUST TO OUR
WEST AGAIN. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME ON TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE THREE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEREFORE BE HIGH (70-80%) ON TUESDAY.
IT STILL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO STALL ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY, WHICH WOULD HELP TO
PROLONG THE RAIN CHANCES. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. IN
FACT, WE ARE INDEED OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
BY THE TIME WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND STARTS MOVING TO THE EAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SUPPORT FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH RAIN CHANCES (80% CHANCE) WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY COULD SATURATE SOILS
TO SOME DEGREE. AS A RESULT, LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF RAIN WILL SEE INCREASED RISK OF FLOOD RELATED CONCERNS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED OUR AREA FOR
A SLIGHT RISK (15 TO 40% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISTURBED WEATHER PATTERN
IN PLACE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS LEAVES A HIGH RAIN CHANCE (80%) IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY.
SOME REMNANTS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY, HOWEVER, LOWER CHANCES (30-
40%) WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR FUTURE UPDATES REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (FLASH FLOODING) POTENTIAL. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR
FUTURE UPDATES AND ENSURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE ANY
WATCHES OR WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KTS AT KABI AND
20-25KTS FARTHER SOUTH. MVFR STRATUS HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND WILL SPREAD NORTH TO KSJT AND KABI
OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL RISE OR SCATTER OUT TO VFR MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 93 73 87 64 / 20 20 80 70
SAN ANGELO 94 72 93 63 / 10 20 70 70
JUNCTION 90 73 91 65 / 10 0 60 80
BROWNWOOD 89 72 88 64 / 10 10 70 70
SWEETWATER 99 72 88 62 / 20 20 80 60
OZONA 93 72 90 64 / 10 0 60 60
BRADY 88 72 89 65 / 10 10 70 80
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...04
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