828
FXUS64 KSJT 181138
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
638 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
- SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (30-80%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS, PARTICULARLY IN THE BIG
COUNTRY, WITH A SURFACE LOW IN THE PANHANDLE AND LEE TROUGH IN
WEST TEXAS. WHILE THE CAMS ARE MAINLY DRY WITH A CAP ALOFT, THE
NAM NEST DOES DEVELOP A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THEY ARE BRIEF, ONLY A COUPLE
HOURS. STILL, IF A STORM DOES DEVELOP, IT COULD BECOME SEVERE.
OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WILL BREAK UP
MIDDAY. HIGHS COULD REACH 100 ALONG A DRYLINE FROM STERLING CITY
TO SWEETWATER AND ROBY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT IN THE BIG
COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN TOWARD DAYBREAK INTO HASKELL AND
THROCKMORTON COUNTIES. VERY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S CONTINUES TO MOVE UP FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING HAZY CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNINGS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
A TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON TUESDAY
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT. MEANWHILE, A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE WILL BE SITTING JUST TO OUR
WEST AGAIN. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME ON TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE THREE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEREFORE BE HIGH (70-80%) ON TUESDAY.
IT STILL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO STALL ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY, WHICH WOULD HELP TO
PROLONG THE RAIN CHANCES. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. IN
FACT, WE ARE INDEED OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
BY THE TIME WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND STARTS MOVING TO THE EAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SUPPORT FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH RAIN CHANCES (80% CHANCE) WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY COULD SATURATE SOILS
TO SOME DEGREE. AS A RESULT, LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF RAIN WILL SEE INCREASED RISK OF FLOOD RELATED CONCERNS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED OUR AREA FOR
A SLIGHT RISK (15 TO 40% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISTURBED WEATHER PATTERN
IN PLACE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS LEAVES A HIGH RAIN CHANCE (80%) IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY.
SOME REMNANTS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY, HOWEVER, LOWER CHANCES (30-
40%) WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR FUTURE UPDATES REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (FLASH FLOODING) POTENTIAL. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR
FUTURE UPDATES AND ENSURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE ANY
WATCHES OR WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS WITH VISIBILITIES 5 MILES IN HAZE,
WILL WILL RISE TO VFR AROUND NOON. A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET WAS
PARTIALLY MIXING THE GROUND AT 11Z, WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS AT
TIMES AT KABI AND KSJT. KABI WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KTS WITH
SOUTH WINDS. KSJT AND THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL GUST 20-25
KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH WIND DECREASING LATE. STRATUS WITH
MVFR CEILINGS RETURNS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WITH PERSISTENT
MVFR HAZE AROUND 5SM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 93 73 87 64 / 20 20 80 70
SAN ANGELO 94 72 93 63 / 10 20 70 70
JUNCTION 90 73 91 65 / 10 0 60 80
BROWNWOOD 89 72 88 64 / 10 10 70 70
SWEETWATER 99 72 88 62 / 20 20 80 60
OZONA 93 72 90 64 / 10 0 60 60
BRADY 88 72 89 65 / 10 10 70 80
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...04
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page