440
FXUS64 KSJT 181756
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1256 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (30-80%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. FOR TODAY, THE
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER,
GENERALLY NORTH OF STERLING CITY. WE HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. AS WARMING
TAKES PLACE TODAY, SB CAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON, AS A DRYLINE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD AID
IN INITIATION OF CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, THAT
WOULD LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP TO PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT
MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS MAINTAIN ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
THROUGH THIS EVENING TO PREVENT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING.
HOWEVER, CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, IF
STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE
LEVELS, SO WILL HAVE AT LEAST A LOW (20%) CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-20 IN THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY.
FOR TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. AS THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION, WITH SB CAPE VALUES AGAIN
APPROACHING 4000 J/KG. THE FRONT, ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE, IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR AREA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 40 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO BECOME SEVERE, WITH
THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING LARGE TO VERY HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AND
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AVAILABLE, TORNADOES CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT. HIGHS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S, WHILE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20, HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
A TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON TUESDAY
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT. MEANWHILE, A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE WILL BE SITTING JUST TO OUR
WEST AGAIN. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME ON TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE THREE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEREFORE BE HIGH (70-80%) ON TUESDAY.
IT STILL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO STALL ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY, WHICH WOULD HELP TO
PROLONG THE RAIN CHANCES. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. IN
FACT, WE ARE INDEED OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
BY THE TIME WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND STARTS MOVING TO THE EAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SUPPORT FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH RAIN CHANCES (80% CHANCE) WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY COULD SATURATE SOILS
TO SOME DEGREE. AS A RESULT, LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF RAIN WILL SEE INCREASED RISK OF FLOOD RELATED CONCERNS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED OUR AREA FOR
A SLIGHT RISK (15 TO 40% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISTURBED WEATHER PATTERN
IN PLACE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS LEAVES A HIGH RAIN CHANCE (80%) IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY.
SOME REMNANTS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY, HOWEVER, LOWER CHANCES (30-
40%) WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR FUTURE UPDATES REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (FLASH FLOODING) POTENTIAL. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR
FUTURE UPDATES AND ENSURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE ANY
WATCHES OR WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
THERE ARE SOME LINGERING VIS VALUES OF 4SM TO 6SM, BUT EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO IMPROVE TO P6SM WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
CEILINGS HAVE ALL IMPROVED TO VFR, AND THESE SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS MOVING BACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW, BUT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME, SO HAVE NOT SHOWN A WIND SHIFT AT KABI JUST YET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 72 86 63 78 / 10 80 50 50
SAN ANGELO 72 92 63 80 / 0 80 60 50
JUNCTION 73 90 65 82 / 0 50 80 60
BROWNWOOD 72 88 64 80 / 0 70 70 50
SWEETWATER 71 87 62 77 / 10 60 40 50
OZONA 71 89 64 82 / 0 50 50 50
BRADY 72 88 64 79 / 0 60 60 50
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20
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