674
FXUS64 KSJT 181840
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
140 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (30-80%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. FOR TODAY, THE
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER,
GENERALLY NORTH OF STERLING CITY. WE HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. AS WARMING
TAKES PLACE TODAY, SB CAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON, AS A DRYLINE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD AID
IN INITIATION OF CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, THAT
WOULD LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP TO PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT
MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS MAINTAIN ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
THROUGH THIS EVENING TO PREVENT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING.
HOWEVER, CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, IF
STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE
LEVELS, SO WILL HAVE AT LEAST A LOW (20%) CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-20 IN THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY.
FOR TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. AS THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION, WITH SB CAPE VALUES AGAIN
APPROACHING 4000 J/KG. THE FRONT, ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE, IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR AREA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 40 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO BECOME SEVERE, WITH
THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING LARGE TO VERY HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AND
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AVAILABLE, TORNADOES CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT. HIGHS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S, WHILE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20, HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
AN ACTIVE SPRING LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A FEW
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA. ALSO, THE COMBINATION OF A
COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE(PW VALUES
1 TO 1.75 INCHES) WILL BRING A RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS THE WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA PLUS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY
AND SOUTHERN HEARTLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES OF RAIN FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS IN THE LONG TERM. ALSO,
THERE IS AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT(SLIGHT
RISK) FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
AND SOME WIND SHEAR. ALSO, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AND A VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S,
AROUND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
THERE ARE SOME LINGERING VIS VALUES OF 4SM TO 6SM, BUT EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO IMPROVE TO P6SM WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
CEILINGS HAVE ALL IMPROVED TO VFR, AND THESE SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS MOVING BACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW, BUT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME, SO HAVE NOT SHOWN A WIND SHIFT AT KABI JUST YET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 72 86 63 78 / 10 80 50 50
SAN ANGELO 72 92 63 80 / 0 80 60 50
JUNCTION 73 90 65 82 / 0 50 80 60
BROWNWOOD 72 88 64 80 / 0 70 70 50
SWEETWATER 71 87 62 77 / 10 60 40 50
OZONA 71 89 64 82 / 0 50 50 50
BRADY 72 88 64 79 / 0 60 60 50
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...20
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