416
FXUS64 KSJT 100542
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1242 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-60%) OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
AS EXPECTED YESTERDAY, HAVE SEEN A FEW WARM ADVECTION TYPE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE STILL SHOWING A BUBBLY CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, AS A CONTINUED FETCH OF SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE GULF
DRIVES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, SEA
BREEZE MADE AN IMPRESSIVE RUN AND HELPED PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ALL THE WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BEFORE THEY
DISSIPATED. WITH ALL THIS IN PLAY AND WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
CAMS, HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO THE
FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUSPECT IT WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET.
OTHERWISE, HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. WARMEST CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY, WHERE A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING TO ENHANCE THICKNESS VALUES AND A
THERMAL RIDGE. THIS WILL PUSH SOME OF THOSE AREAS IN THE UPPER
90S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
UPPER RIDGE ENHANCEMENT WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE HOTTEST DAY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH MID AND UPPER 90S COMMON AND A FEW AREAS
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
ONGOING EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, GETTING SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO
THE 102-206 RANGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SWEETWATER AND ABILENE
NORTH LOOKS LIKELY. WILL SEE HOW WIDESPREAD IT LOOKS, BUT MAY END
UP NEEDING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
FIRST OF SEVERAL COLD FRONTS MAKES SOME PROGRESS TOWARDS THE BIG
COUNTRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHETHER THE FRONT OR
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EXPECTED CONVECTION ACROSS
OKLAHOMA MAY DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS I-20 IS A BIG QUESTION. IF THEY
CAN MAKE IT, THEY WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FOR FRIDAY. IF THEY DON'T MAKE IT, AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
MODEL BLENDS ARE SHOWING A 20-30% CHANCE AND THAT SEEMS PERFECTLY
REASONABLE FOR NOW. CAMS WILL START TO HANDLE THESE POSSIBILITIES
BETTER TOMORROW.
FIRST BOUNDARY RETREATS AND SATURDAY LOOKS LARGELY HOT AND DRY
AGAIN, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL ALREADY BE STARTING TO WEAKEN
AND GET PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTH BY A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO TEXAS AND
PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AT THE SAME TIME A STRONGER
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TEXAS. WHILE MOST MODELS SHOW THESE FEATURES, STILL A
VERY WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS WHEN IT COME TO RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE PROBABILISTIC DATA SUGGESTS
THAT GETTING NO RAIN AND GETTING OVER ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN ARE
JUST AS LIKELY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. MODEL BLENDS ARE
PUSHING OUT MEDIUM CHANCES OF CONVECTION (MAINLY 30-60%) FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. AGAIN, GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY, THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE FIRST GUESS FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE
SCATTERING/LIFTING TO VFR BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 8-12 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY AT ALL THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 95 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 95 75 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 94 73 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 95 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 97 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 10
OZONA 91 73 94 74 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 93 74 95 74 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...42
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