022
FXUS64 KSJT 101902
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
202 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-60%) OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH
HOT AND BUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL
INTO THE 90S, PERHAPS PUSHING NEAR 100 FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF
ABILENE, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL SOAR INTO THE 100-105 RANGE. MAY
BRIEFLY HIT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE
LIMITED IN AREA AND FOR A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME, SO WILL NOT ISSUE
THE ADVISORY QUITE YET.
MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS A DRYLINE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST AND/OR
SOUTHEAST TO MAKE IT INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. WILL GIVE THE NEXT
SHIFT SOMETHING TO MONITOR HOWEVER JUST IN CASE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
THE START OF A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE WILL START THURSDAY NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN AFFECTS WONT BE UNTIL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY HELP DEVELOP
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE OUTFLOW AND/OR
EFFECTIVE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER. WHETHER THIS
OUTFLOW CAN MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE BIG COUNTRY IS A BIG
QUESTION, BUT GIVEN SOME OF THE NEWER CAMS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE
CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT, HAVE
INCREASES POPS ACROSS HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. OUTSIDE CHANCE A BOUNDARY CAN MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
I-20 TO HELP PRODUCE MORE STORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND NOT
GOING TO ARGUE MUCH WITH THE 20% POPS FOR ABILENE AND SWEETWATER.
STILL, THIS INITIAL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA AND THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE, EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS, BEST POPS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
EVENING. FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY AND MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING,
BEFORE A LITTLE DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AND
SHUNTS CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN, MVFR
CEILINGS MAKE A RETURN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 77 97 77 95 / 0 0 20 10
SAN ANGELO 75 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 73 95 73 96 / 0 0 0 10
BROWNWOOD 75 96 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 75 99 75 96 / 0 0 10 10
OZONA 73 93 73 93 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 73 94 74 94 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...41
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